Were a little closer to some certainty on the Christmas storm, but not much, frankly. Some things appear clearer: The southern system that was thought to be absorbed into the main low, causing it to bomb out, will stay largely separate. This means that the pressure from this system will be higher than the models anticipated as recently as yesterday, and the winds will not be as strong as originally anticipated. To be clear, there will be strong gusts whipping any precipitation around, just not quite as strong as earlier thought. Rain will be the main precipitation for the region, with my forecast amounts still in place. Temperatures will likely not quite reach the double digits, but will still be unseasonably warmer. There is still a strong likelihood for lake-effect snow on the backside of this system (all images below from Accuweather) From the USA NWS in Michigan: MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS JET ENERGY DIGS AROUND AMPLIFYING UPPER THROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GENERAL AREA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO EXCEPTION. WHILE A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS STILL BRING A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE CONUS WITH BETTER PHASING ONCE THIS SOUTHERN ENERGY REACHES EASTERN CANADA. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SO HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK GOOD IN THE FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS/GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A DECIDED LACK OF COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH...SO ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW AND HOLD OFF UNTIL COLD AIR IS ABLE TO WRAP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THE LOW...MOST LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY WELL IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST IN TIMING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. WILL JUST DELAY THIS 6-12 HOURS TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE BEING WEAKER...ON AVERAGE...WIND SPEED FORECASTS HAVE COME DOWN NOTABLY AS WELL. COLDER AIR DOES FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...BUT GIVEN A LIMITED CONNECTION TO THE POLAR/ARCTIC AIRMASS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOA AVERAGE IN THE 30S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE...RACE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND ONLY AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES DOES ANY NOTABLE COLD AIR GET DRAWN INTO THE REGION.
Posted on: Sun, 21 Dec 2014 16:05:11 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015