Were two for two on bands of showers making it to the coast this morning! And theres a lot of variability on tomorrows rain with timing and intensity. When forecasting we look at weather models, I took screen shots of when and how much rain they have for tomorrow morning. 1. The earliest model, the ADONIS, has the rain coming in at 5am, but the yellow bands never make it onshore, rather weakening as it moves inland. 2. The NAM model is the only one that really holds the storm together bringing us the best chance for heavy rain between 7 and 10 tomorrow morning. 3. And the latest run of the GFS model has backed off SO much so wed only see scattered light rain arriving closer to 10am with spotty showers into the afternoon. Weather is not an exact science, but we look at what we can and forecast appropriately. Last weeks rain I was confident about how much and when even a week in advance, and that came true. I am not as confident about this weeks and so I have tried not to hype it. Ive been calling for a chance for spotty showers today, and tomorrow there is a chance for periods of heavier rain at times in the morning. High resolution models come into play when we get closer to the morning, stay with 10News – ABC San Diego KGTV and well update you!
Posted on: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 17:27:49 +0000
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