WestPacWx-wise: We now enter a new phase with Invest 90W now upgraded into a full-fledged Tropical Cyclone, now at Tropical Storm threshold. Tropical Storm Neoguri/08W exhibits a broad circulation, banding together and slowly accelerating Northwest at 25 km/hr, packing winds of 65 km/hr gusting higher at 92 km/hr with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The system was located at about 1,798 km East-northeast of Dinagat Island, and is expected to tip the Eastern PAR line within the next 12-24h, greatly enhancing the surge of the Southwest Monsoon aka. Habagat along the Western seaboards of Palawan, Visayas to include Mindanao regions due to the current location of the system. The archipelago is mostly covered in thick rain clouds at this time, with the rest of Luzons Western seaboards experiencing heavy falls associated with the ongoing Monsoonal flow, and the influence of a much weaker system, Invest 91W which is drawing a lot of localized thunderstorms over Luzon area. Sea conditions are expected to be moderate to rough especially in exposed areas. Also, expect on-and-off squally rains associated by burst of gusty winds coming from the South to Southwest and becoming cloudy between lull periods at times. The public is largely informed of the risks, and please heed warnings from local authorities and disaster management agencies across the archipelago. Id like to note that, Invest 91W over the East Philippine Sea has no potential to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24h as Ive seen reports from the media, disseminated by DoST-PAGASA to hit Cagayan area in the North of Luzon. Again, the system has no indications of becoming a storm. It is just a LPA, forecast to move up North towards Taiwan. Ive not seen indications for it to further intensify. For the most part of Mindanao, where widespread flooding have been reported, the persistent trough associated with the ITCZ line continue to generate light to moderate rainfall which could additionally aggravate the already saturated land. Evacuate to higher grounds if need be. A reminder that we are on Typhoon Season, and more storms may pop up which could adversely impact our livelihood, so please be on high readiness to avoid casualty and destruction to property. Our long-range outlook for Tropical Storm Neoguri/08W, likely to make its presence felt directly somewhere over the Okinawa-Ryukus region (possibly sparing Kadena AFB by few hundred km to the East) in Southernmost Japan by early 07-08 July 2014, and as the system progresses ever poleward, it could significantly impact the Southern mainland of Japan, bringing in high winds, and flooding rains, as it could reinforce the already persistent rainfall spawned by back-to-back Rainy Season front which may, due to instability in the wx, could generate severe wx conditions. Models also point the system to reach a decent Category 3 threshold sometime 08-09 July 2014 just before landfall on Japanese mainland. It could change still, way to early to tell, but if it does, it could be a major impact. At this point, the immediate area feeling the heavy squalls of wind and rain is the Southern areas of Guam Island, well below the Marianas Islands extending the massive rain bands over Palau Island. Thats it from me, for more in-depth coverage on these wx disturbances brewing across the region. As always, keep safe, and be abreast of the latest updates we post especially on the website: westernpacificweather/ for more details across East Asia and the WestPac Basin! @weatherguyadonz
Posted on: Fri, 04 Jul 2014 07:58:33 +0000
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