WestPacWx-wise: We now officially have a Tropical Depression in Western Pacific tagged as 01W/Unnamed. Well await the issuance by JMA in the next few hours of soon-to-be Mekkhala the first Tropical Cyclone this year. This highly anticipated tropical development was already being forecast by several wx monitoring sites since the first few days of this month. In fact, its previous designation as Invest 91W was in fact cancelled after losing much of its convection. The remnants however showed some reorganization in the last couple of days, thus it was given a new lease of life dubbed 92W. Considered all data, we now have in our midst yet another Tropical Depression that could adversely affect air and sea travels across the Eastern sections of the Visayas and Luzon in the next 24-36h. The last known position of 01W was about 295 km East-southeast of Yap Is., or 1,668 km East-southeast of Dinagat Is. in Northernmost tip of Mindanao. It continues to build up in intensity of around 55 km/hr sustained winds and gusting higher at 83 km/hr with central pressure of 1004 hPa. At the onset, much of its convective bands are on its North and Western periphery with sheared bands along the South perhaps due to shearing conditions. However, 01W is expected to track West-northwest at 15 km/hr in the next 6-12h before gearing to a more Westward motion over the East Philippine Sea. I am therefore confident that the storm may not crest the Tropical Storm mark as it pushes off towards the East Philippine Sea under the battering Northeasterly surge, but nonetheless a wx maker that should challenge the preparations even more that are underway for the arrival of Pope Francis later today. Having said that, the five-day (14-19 January 2015) pilgrimage schedule of the Pontiff should cause several millions of Filipinos and foreign nationals from across the globe, including his entourage flocking into activity locations set for the Holy Masses both in the cities around Manila, Tacloban and Palo in Leyte province. Now why is this so important? We are talking about millions of people rushing into ports, airports and taking long road trips into designated venues and that should bring problems along with the brewing bad wx. That should complicate things, but hoping for the best on this rather historic visit. Well keep you all posted in the forthcoming days as we keep a tight monitoring on this system. Id wish our state wx bureau DoST-PAGASA issue its official warnings in record time, as storms of this intensity are but likely a rain event and evidently highly unpredictable. It would be rather quite unfortunate that its only good on its infallibility. Lets bear in mind that weaker systems generate more rain than usual and most fatalities are caused by drowning floods. Apparently, with previous storms, the lack of adequate warnings and inaction by local authorities contribute to the already of the human nature of not taking precautions and heeding evacuation orders until the storm is upon them and everything too late. Lastly, I wish to ask everyones indulgence to include in prayers that the religious rites be peaceful, and God keep our people safe at all times, especially the visiting Pope and his entourage, to include everyone involved in his security and for the complete success of his mission in Asia. @weatherguyadonz Source: on.fb.me/1wWWWTc For more weather updates please visit PANAHON BLOG at weatherngayon.wordpress
Posted on: Thu, 15 Jan 2015 17:21:13 +0000
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