Weve now heard from the supreme commander of NATO in Europe, Gen. Philip Breedlove, that the 150,000 Russian combat troops on Ukraines eastern border are very, very sizable and very, very ready. NATO on the other hand is unwilling, unable and unready, at least if you go by some of its vocal military critics in recent years. From a military standpoint, the Ukraine crisis hits Europe at a time when its European members have slashed $45 billion from their militaries in recent years (the equivalent of the entire German defence budget). Those cuts have left the U.S. to carry 75 per cent of the NATO burden, and they are coming at a time when Washington has been showing much less interest in European security, as it pivots its military strategy to the Pacific. By contrast, Russian military spending has surged 92 per cent in just four years and will rise by 18 per cent this year, according to the authoritative Janes Defence Weekly military publications and Russian state figures. At this point, its clear that diplomats might have a few more tools than the generals to try and shore up Ukraines independence. These would include further economic sanctions against Putins regime, more diplomatic isolation of Moscow, and urgent economic and technical assistance for Kyiv as it tries to build a democratic state free of the suffocating corruption that has crippled it almost since it became independent in 1991. Another wrinkle here is that Europe has grown critically reliant on Russian energy supplies. And clearly a formula must be found to reduce Ukraines and probably central Europes dependence on Russian energy. Militarily, however, the kind of help that has been discussed for Ukraines poor-cousin armed forces is strikingly limited. It would include some technical support, satellite intelligence and communications upgrades to counter any cyberwar. Plus real uniforms and military meals. Offering to shore up Ukraines military, NATO believes, would be a step much too far in a country for which Russia has deep emotional ties and considers part of its, though now much reduced, sphere of influence. Concern about provoking Russia unnecessarily was why so many in NATO were always cool to Ukrainian membership whenever it was brought up. Even leaving Ukraine aside, NATO has other potential crises on its flanks, where it is obliged by treaty to protect increasingly nervous NATO members who are also neighbours of Russia. These include the three former Soviet Union satellites, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all with fragile economies and significant Russian minorities; as well as the much larger Poland, a former member of the Soviet Unions Warsaw Pact military alliance. Including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania was always controversial within NATO because they are so far east and so difficult to defend. These days, NATO is also hearing rising security concerns and demands for reassurance from nations such as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria , as well as both the Czech and Slovak Republics. cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-can-a-weakened-nato-stand-up-to-putin-1.2589288
Posted on: Fri, 28 Mar 2014 21:28:56 +0000
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