What PM Nawaz has tried achieving? - Nawazs speech was intelligently created with few key objectives in mind: One, to boost the sagging morale of PMLN supporters & allies; Second, to put Imran on defensive by creating the impression that he is irrational and is bent upon sabotaging the political system and Third, to empower the friendly media and columnists and supporters on international community (US & Allies) who are under pressure since Nawaz and PMLN have been seen as rigid, and pro-violence relying exclusively upon Police methods instead of political negotiations. What is happening in Pakistan is an all out political war between Nawaz Sharif and his supporters (PPP, ANP and NP of Achakzai - and international support from the US & allies) and his opponents (Imran, Qadri, Chaudries, various small parties like Sunni Itehad & Sheikh and behind the scenes force of Establishment) and both sides use moral arguments to bolster their positions, however it remains a power and interest war in which Nawaz & allies use arguments of democracy (without having the slightest regards for democratic norms or constitutional rights of their opponents or citizens at large) - Events of the past few weeks - especially since the PMLN orchestrated massacre in Model Town Lahore in June - have produced shifts and strains in political field affecting the positions of PPP, MQM and JI. PPP is under pressure in Punjab, Jammat due to its young urban cadres who see Nawaz a symbol of undemocratic family rule and MQM for complex motivations. It is important for PMLN to keep these political parties away from extending full or partial support to Imran and Qadri. Nawaz speech today has produced some dividends in this direction. PPP under Zardari is Nawaz ally, Jammat does not want to do anything that may make it a partner in the imposition of a martial law and MQM- though sympathetic to Qadri - will remain at the fence unless political situation or its direction is totally clear. Today Nawaz had provided arguments to bolster Zardari and Jammat and to discourage MQM, by showing himself amenable to dialogue and compromise -something which all these political parties and other supporters in media can use for building a narrative to put pressure upon Imran and supporters. Despite this apparent smart political move by Nawaz, political crisis will not be resolved anytime soon. Imran and PTI have rightly interpreted that Nawaz is not sincere in making this offer and he is only trying to smartly break the momentum of protests being built against his rule. And that too in a very power driven imperial fashion, after surrounding all his political opponents with police cordons around them and after arresting thousands of political workers. For PTI to fall prey to his offer, at this stage and in this fashion, will only and only mean being fooled and outsmarted and losing all momentum which took them a year to build. All political analysts remember that PMLN leadership has been repeatedly denying that such a solution (as being offered by Nawaz today) is even possible and despite showing ceremonial regards for new CJ and Supreme court, all political combatants know that courts have no ability to find solutions for such overtly tenacious political challenges; and Supreme Court should be wise to stay away from something that is so controversial and now so heated. Courts are already on defensive, they have miserably failed in protecting citizens and their constitutional rights against the high handedness of Punjab government and any unwise move by the judiciary, perceived to be in support of the executive, will further marginalize their possible influence in near future. These difficult political issues can only be resolved through sustained political engagement - Unfortunately Nawaz has shown far too much arrogance towards all his opponents; in the last 14 months he has consistently behaved as if he has some sort of divine position or God Complex that makes him superior to all others in Pakistani politics. Even todays speech by teleprompter where he spoke very well did little to mask the contempt in which he holds Imran and all his opponents. Nawazs continuous attempts to dehumanize Dr. Qadri and to treat his support base with sheer contempt and state brutality is unprecedented in contemporary Pakistani political discourse - and is injecting more and more polarization into the body politic, without PMLN and so called liberals realizing it. Concluding, PM Nawazs speech will have some political dividends; Imran and PTI did not respond very well to begin with but by morning they will streamline their arguments; they now know how much pressure Nawaz is under and with every move towards Islamabad they are only going to increase it. Lahore itself is fast becoming a flash point which is even more threatening to PMLN since Kipling and Noor Jehans abode is a large organic historic city with millions of young men and women around. And any unwise policing action by PMLN will only add to their troubles. PM Nawaz takes strength in his understanding that military is in no mood for direct intervention, and that US stands with him, but despite this the political risks to his position are real; he must prepare himself for bigger and real concessions and for genuine electoral and political reforms in the form of local governments; he will have to learn power sharing in his base in Punjab. Pakistan of 2014, is not the country he knew and ruled like a Mughal Emperor in 1997-99.
Posted on: Wed, 13 Aug 2014 06:11:09 +0000
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