What are the implications of the Crimean referendum for Russia? Most of the dicussion now seems to focus on the international consequences of the Crimean blitz-referendum for Russias relations with the West. Those ARE all extremely serious. But Putin is also taking enormous risks here domestically. We (or he) should not be fooled by the rallying around the flag we are now observing throughout Russia. The Crimea is a genuine wasps nest. After the jubilations die down, Crimeans will realize that the fatherland that they are now returning to is much more similar to the one they had under Yanukovich than they realize. Many Crimean inhabitants who may have voted for Putins reconquista now have entirely unrealistic expectations about what this will bring for them - expectations that Putin is unlikely to be able to realize. Think about Russias federalism, for instance. Either he will have to review his entire approach to the vertical of power (e.g. by giving Crimea MORE rights than the other Russian republics). In which case the entire Northern Caucasus will start looking even worse (I can think of at least a handful of possible referenda there that may result in a very different outcome than the Crimean one). OR he sticks to his centralist instincts, in which case he has another problem case on his hands. Then there still are the many divorce issues between Crimea and Ukraine which have not been thought through in this blitz-referendum (water, energy, military, etc.) There is the Crimean Tatar wild card. My own sentiment is that we (the West) should now primarily focus on rump-Ukraine. There is a massive amount of work to be done there. We will have to do everything we can to avoid military conflict - and this will not be easy. AND we will have to make sure that the necessary changes are made to the rules of the game in at least THAT country - economically, politically, federally, etc. That is what Putin was/is, in my opinion, most scared of. A more truly democratic, normal European East-Slavic country as a counter-weight to the post-Soviet model of oligarchic kleptocracy that Putins Russia stands for. Such a more European Ukraine is by no means a foregone conclusion. But it is a distinct opportunity. And one that Europe should be willing to invest in.
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 14:21:23 +0000
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