What is going on in the Ukraine? Ive been reading a lot of divergent opinions on what is happening the Ukraine, ranging from the far-fetched to the bizarre, most devolving analysis of the conflict into cheering for a competing sports team. Heres my take on what is going on: The divisions in the Ukraine are nothing new, owing to a very turbulent history: the country is deeply ethno-culturally divided. The base divide is between the strong centrally Russian population of the east of the country, and those who identify as more Ukrainian in the west. But this basic contradiction belies the large diversity of interests across the country on both sides. The Tatar’s making up a significant minority in Crimea, for example, and their Azeri and Armenian neighbours in the south. Across the country there is a strong lingering Yiddish speaking Jewish presence, and in the far west over a million native Poles from what used to be part of the territorial divide of the Grand Duchy of Poland and Lithuania. Across the country, there are further significant portions of Hungarians, Romanians, Moldovans and a smattering of refugees from the Caucasus. Despite this diversity, the conflict is not ethnic or cultural, but rather directly economic. The recent protest movements in the Ukraine have been against massive economic hardship, corruption, and a perceived lack of willingness on the part of their rulers, elected and otherwise, to lessen the severe conditions faced by almost all Ukrainians. This is at its core a conflict between a deeply divided wealthy ruling elite of the country, and the great mass of its citizens who are being grossly exploited. The Ukraine is undergoing significant financial hardship. Historically the bread basket, agricultural heartland, and founding seat of the Russian Empire (through the Kievan Rus), after the collapse of the Soviet regime control of key resources across the country was divided up into the hand of competing oligarchs. While historically the country was rich agriculturally, today there is a vast wealth in commodities – a massive potential for resource-based industry. What prevents the Ukrainians from developing these industries is the same problem the world-over: reliable access to affordable, dependable energy. Not only is the Ukraine a vital pipeline route for Russian natural gas running to Eastern Europe, a cheap and relatively inexhaustible form of energy that has financed the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions for the past two decades, but itself relies on Russia for over 60% of its natural gas. There is no cheap, affordable, independent and reliable energy infrastructure in the Ukraine that would allow for the development of reliable, broad based sustainable industry. This is a precarious situation, and one that has generated heavy reliance on the part of some oligarchs, and the economy as a whole, on a close alliance with Russian interests. Twice in the past decade, Russia has unilaterally cut gas supplies to the Ukraine as part of a geopolitical strategy to maintain influence across Eastern Europe. As I wrote about in CounterPunch last May, natural gas prices have been falling because of a massive glut of supply and competition. Not only has Russia’s most important economic weapon been steadily eroded, but the decaying Soviet-era infrastructure that the gas industry closely relies upon has not seen any substantial reinvestment from the massive profits reaped by companies like Gazprom, which up until last year was the most profitable company in the world. In short, Russia’s indirect economic leverage is declining, giving way to their desire to exert more direct forms of military leverage. Economically this has taken shape in the form of a proposed massive bailout package to the Ukraine, which is undergoing a sovereign debt and financing crisis. Militarily the results are obvious: a stepped up presence at one of their key ports, Svastapol, even while instability in Syria threatens their Navy’s only remaining warm-water port, Tarsus. While Russia has scrambled to tie the Ukraine to itself economically as its natural gas leverage recedes, the European Union has put forward its own bailout package, largely at the instigation of the German troika. This package, like the one given to Greece, comes with harsh neo-liberal austerity measures that would see the broad privatization of vital and valuable Ukrainian resources. In short, both the Russian and EU plans would, in different forms, strip the country of control over its natural resources, essentially denying an ability for the country to provide for its citizens and raise their standard of living on any substantial basis. While the US and EU have competing interests in the Ukraine, and are operating through distinct political formations in the West of the country, they have made common cause against Russian interests. Control of the vital gas pipeline routes in the country will severely restrict Russian policy throughout Eastern Europe, and provide an indirect challenge to Russia’s domination of the Caucasus (as a side note, the Ukrainian conflict should not be conflated with the Abkhazian one, where the country was forced to invite Russians troops to stave off genocidal attacks by the Georgians who sought to slaughter the Adyge, Ubyhk and Abaza people, burning their country’s national archives in the process). The great majority of people across the country, and mostly likely the protesters who genuinely came out against the regime, have repeatedly voiced strong opposition both to Russian political domination, as well as EU-backed austerity measures that would impoverish the country and sell off its most vital assets. Politically, these people have no natural allies; the Russian-backed Party of Regions that historically received some support has failed to offer any economic relief, while the National Democrats have taken an extreme position in favour of neo-liberal policies that are deeply unpopular. The failure of any major existing political party to appeal to the broad sectors of the population weary of Russian and EU economic intervention has led to the rise of two fascist parties, Svoboda and the even more extreme Pravya Sector. Both are openly white-supremacist and anti-semitic. Both use the traditional formula of Fascism: appealing to the economic needs of the majority of the population, as a wedge issue to distract from their true aims and goals. Both are highly dictatorial, centralized, and controlled organizations. Svoboda in particular has assumed a leading role in the new Ukrainian government, with substantial ministerial powers and influence. Both supplied a large plurality, of not the majority, of the front line street protesters after the Yanukovych regime resorted to naked violence against the protesters. The political left, being largely discredited where it has associated or devolved from the former Communist Party, has not seen its substantial participation in the street protests against the Russian-backed Part of Regions translate into any concrete political formation or enduring support. In essence, the Ukraine is divided in three ways between those who back the EU neoliberal reforms, Russian political and economic domination, or neither. Those who prefer neither are the most deeply divided, between a resurgent fascist movement gaining popular support, and a poorly organized left wing unable to translate its deep support into anything tangible. In the face of all this, it seems the nominally social-democratic pro-EU political movements will win the day in the West, leaving an indeterminate amount of the East in the hands of pro-Russian forces.
Posted on: Wed, 05 Mar 2014 22:20:21 +0000
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