What will 2014 be like for Turkmenistan? Four experts’ view on regional geopolitics Régis Genté In an effort to bring new voices to give their opinion and expertise, we have asked four specialists of Central Asia to tell us what 2014could be like for Turkmenistan. Here is some verbatim. The region is changing a lot, and this will necessarily affect Turkmenistan * * * “If Iran comes back to the international scene (…) the regional balance will be deeply changed” Mohammad-Reza Djalili, political analyst focusing on the Middle-East and Central Asia The relations between Ashkhabad and Tehran are quite good at the moment. The trade exchange is increasing, being around 10 billion dollars last year. Looking at geopolitics, two dimensions should be noticed. First, Turkmenistan and Iran share one thousand kilometers border. The last year, the two countries made progress to be more connected, with the construction of a new railway. In 2014, these efforts could continue as both territories can be used as a transit one for the other: Turkmenistan wants to have access to the world markets via Iran’s ports in the South and Iran wants to have access to Central Asia. The second geopolitical dimension is about security. Ashkhabad and Tehran share interests, whether on the dangers coming from Afghanistan or on the Syrian issue. Of course, in 2014, the most important question is the ongoing discussions between Tehran and Washington, and the International Community, about the Iranian nuclear issue. They can have a strong and positive impact on Turkmenistan. If Iran fully comes back into the International Community and the sanctions are lifted, then it will as soon as possible do everything to attract investments in its oil and gas industry. But I don’t think it will affect negatively Turkmen gas exports to Iran, which are around 10 bcm per year, because Iran will need this gas for its northern regions, which are heavily populated. But the most important is that Iran, if it de-isolates, would open the whole region, for trade, hydrocarbons industry, for all kinds of investments. Car industry for example could restart. If Iran comes back to the international scene, the regional balance will be deeply changed because everything that has been made in the region for 15 years was about bypassing Iran. It will not happen overnight as Tehran will need years to restore the confidence. But 2014 should be the year when we will understand if Iran’s comeback will happen or not. At the moment, we can be reasonably optimististic. And Turkmenistan should be looking at these discussions very closely. * * * “In the Turkmen steppes, it is pretty calm” Ilham Shaban, Director of the Azerbaijan Centre for Oil Studies and energy specialist at the Turan Information Agency Azerbaijan started very actively in 2014 . In the very first days of the year, President Aliyev paid an official visit to Brussels where he assured EU leaders that Baku would fulfill all its obligations in the energy field. He was speaking of course about the Shah Deniz- 2 and gas pipeline projects, TANAP and TAP, to export this coming production to Europe. In short, it was a good preparation for the start of the 60 billion dollars investments in oil and gas projects in Azerbaijan for the period 2014-2018. In this scenario, on the right bank of the Caspian Sea, in the Turkmen steppes, it is pretty calm. Since the end of last year, at the official level, Ashkhabad didn’t give any “sign of life”, about its intentions to transport its gas to the Western direction. However, the government of Turkmenistan is actively negotiating for its gas exports to other destinations. For example, in 2014 a number of scheduled action are planned to begin the construction of the Turkmenistan – Kyrgyzstan – China gas pipeline. Furthermore, in the current year it is also planned to conduct several rounds of talks on the TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan –Afghanistan – Pakistan – India). Working groups are stepping up work in this direction. However, no event is scheduled to talk about exporting gas across the Caspian Sea, even theoretically. This topic is only evoked during conferences. In Ashkhabad, in their meetings, the Turkmen officials are even not using the word “trans-Caspian gas pipeline”. Therefore it is difficult to predict if in 2014 the officials in Ashkhabad will make some steps going in this direction. * * * “Narcotics trafficking will remain the greatest security challenge” Dmitry Gorenburg, research analyst with the think tank CNA Strategic Studies I think drug (narcotics) trafficking will remain the greatest security challenge for Turkmenistan in the next year. The US departure from Afghanistan may lead to greater instability in the region, though most discussion of its impact on Central Asia exaggerates the likely impact, so I would list this as a second challenge. If the US pulls out all, or even most, of its troops, from Afghanistan, this will prove that the focus on the region is at an end. The financial allocations for security assistance to Central Asian states are another good signal. If this assistance is cut significantly, that will be proof that the withdrawal from Afghanistan also signals the end of US paying much attention to Central Asia. Since Turkmenistan is fairly isolated in security and alliance terms, I don’t think the consequences will be very significant. Even if the Taliban does take over in Afghanistan and uses the country as a base to spread insurgency to Central Asia, this takeover would take a long time to complete, so there would not be much of an effect in 2014. Russia will retain the lead role for security assistance to Central Asia as a whole, though Turkmenistan itself is much more closely tied to China in economic terms. Russian efforts to strengthen the CSTO are a sign that it is taking Central Asian security quite seriously. It may at some point in the future increase pressure on Turkmenistan to participate in CSTO activities or even to become a member, though such pressure will not come for some time. China will continue to free-ride on Russian security assistance and will continue to focus on dominating economic developments in Central Asia as a whole and Turkmenistan in particular. Europe’s role will be minimal at best. India and Turkey have made some efforts to increase security ties to Central Asian states, but have not achieved that much. * * * “Strenghthening the relations with the foreign partners” Isabella Damiani, geograph, specialist on Central Asia, teaching at the Versailles University (France) Whereas Niyazov (Turkmenbashi) put the “permanent neutrality” at the center of his foreign policy, which lead to a kind of “geopolitical independence”, his successor Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov have slightly changed the Turkmen diplomacy. He immediately shown his will to strengthen the relations with his country’s partners, mostly the main ones in the economical field, as Iran and China, and the Central Asia neighbors as Afghanistan or Uzbekistan. For this year, we should pay attention to the question if, at least, Turkmenistan as a regional energy power, starts to be able to use its geographical position to be a bridge between the post soviet space and Middle East and export its hydrocarbons production. Its location can be seen as a chance, as it is far enough from Russia for example, as well as a difficult one. If Ashkhabad continues with this dynamics of strengthening the relations with the foreign partners, we should expect some developments at the economical and energy level as well as in the security and defense fields. In this respect, the withdrawal from the NATO troops from ? will be a very important event for Turkmenistan.
Posted on: Tue, 11 Feb 2014 20:37:18 +0000
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