What will happen if the Samaras/Troika policies continue after 28 Jan 2015? The ILO has said that the country would not return to pre-crisis employment levels until 2034 (assuming Greeces pre-recession average job creation rate of 1.3 percent per year). ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_321408/lang--en/index.htm The ILO issued a report just before Christmas stating that the number of Greeks at risk of poverty has more than doubled in five years. The ILO issued its 200-page report, “Productive Jobs for Greece”, in English and Greek and a press release in six languages, all available here: ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_321408/lang--en/index.htm The report also predicts that the pre-crisis level of employment will not be restored before 2034 unless vigorous policy measures are implemented for creating jobs a higher rate than the pre-crisis level. The Greek economy has been shrinking since 2007; the recession intensified after an EU-IMF financial bailout in May 2010 that forced the government to dismantle public services and deregulate the labour market. The IMF has forecast that the country’s GDP should show slight positive growth in 2014 for the first time in seven years, but unemployment remains at 25 per cent. Below is an AFP piece on the report, which quotes the ILO’s director of research as stating that the strategy of the Troika (ECB-European Commission-IMF) did not achieve expected results for economic and employment recovery but “has helped restore public finances”. This last assertion is debatable. According to IMF figures, Greece’s public debt/GDP ratio was at 115 per cent in 2009, prior to the Troika’s 2010 “rescue”, and reached 175 per cent last year despite drastic austerity measures and a partial debt write-down that took place in 2012. “Greece-labour-unemployment - Greece faces two decades to recoup lost jobs: Greece, in the throes of soaring unemployment and a six-year recession, faced a prolonged social crisis which could last another two decades, the International Labour Organisation said in its report. The ILO said that assuming Greeces pre-recession average job creation rate of 1.3 percent per year, the country would not return to pre-crisis employment levels until 2034. Greece faces a prolonged social crisis unless action is taken, the organisation warned. Whilst the jobless rate is in slow decline, there are still over 1.2 million registered unemployed in Greece, or 25.9 percent of the workforce as recorded in August, the height of the busy tourist season. The Greek government says the economy will finally exit recession this year, but the ILO argues that even at a growth rate of 2.0 percent annually, recovery would still take 13 years. The number of Greeks at risk of poverty has more than doubled in five years, rising from above 20 percent in 2008 when the recession began to over 44 percent in 2013, the organisation said. One in four jobs has been lost over this period, it said, calling for urgent measures to support people and firms and set the country on a sustainable recovery path. Greece should facilitate the expansion of sustainable enterprises, especially in tourism and the agricultural sector, tackle undeclared work, cooperate with firms to design skill programmes, and shift the tax base from basic consumption to property.” A fiscal overhaul supervised by Greeces creditors -- the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund -- has concentrated on slashing wages and benefits to improve competitiveness and boost economic growth. The strategy so far, while it has helped restore public finances, has not achieved the expected results in terms of a sustainable economic and employment recovery, said ILOs research director Raymond Torres.
Posted on: Thu, 15 Jan 2015 19:12:26 +0000
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