Whats Amama Mbabazi up to? by ANDREW P WAMBOGA Making sense of Mbabazi silence On January 1, the public waited with bated breath for a standoff that would constitute a potential point of no-return in the rift between President Museveni and former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi. It never came. Dropped as the secretary general of the ruling NRM in a rather neat technical manoeuvre, followed by a barrage of humbling tricks that saw him ejected out of a system whose engine he was a key draftsman, Mbabazi’s cryptic language thereafter portrayed a man ready to clutch on the last straw. He stirred ripples in the political waters when he issued Christmas card greetings, signing off as SG and told curious journalists that he actually is and shall remain the SG of the NRM. His lawyer Severino Twinobusingye also insisted his client was still the SG, saying: “I have no doubt in my mind he will report for duty on January 1.” More than three weeks later, Mbabazi has not been seen anywhere near Plot 10 Kyadondo road, the home of the ruling party in Kampala. And he has gone largely silent, save for promising to make an announcement soon and for an occasional appearance on social media. Asked recently if and when he would report for duty as promised, Mbabazi said he could not discuss the matter in public. At the weekend, Twinobusingye, too, declined to discuss what his client’s silence is meant to say. He referred The Observer to Mbabazi himself, whose telephone has since gone unanswered. And so has the question of what his real plot is. Does Mbabazi’s silence speak of a man stranded between his rocky ambition and a party too hard to be a meaningful member of? Or is the man once known as “super minister” playing a whole new script of politics that could see a dramatic twist in Uganda’s political tide? Could he have learned lessons from three-time presidential candidate Dr Kizza Besigye, whose announcement of his presidential bid late in 2000 jolted Museveni into bulldozing him? Keen watchers of the political space say that Mbabazi could be buying time, letting Museveni make blunders as he weakens the party from within and allotting himself enough time to strike when it is strategically viable. Yet whatever Mbabazi’s plans are, Museveni remains a deft politician with a history of keeping one step ahead of his opponents. Never one to take opponents lightly, Museveni has already spent billions of shillings on schemes that could have the aggregate effect of neutralising Mbabazi. Mbabazi must be aware of the risks that come with challenging Museveni. In 2001, Dr Besigye did it and had to flee to exile when his life was endangered. In 2005, when he returned, his reputation suffered thanks to treason and rape charges that he was eventually cleared of. There is also the example of Gen David Sejusa, the former coordinator of intelligence services. Last month, Sejusa returned from exile in the United Kingdom, 18 months after he had whipped up a political storm. Sejusa, who said he had come back to fight Museveni’s “oppressive” regime, later met the president and since then the general has fallen silent. So, given Mbabazi’s experience working with Museveni, he might know what lies in store for him just like an experienced cook who knows best how terribly hot charcoal burns. After all, he was the architect of the many laws that sought to curtail the rights of the political opposition. He knows how toxic the cobra can get. Fear of loss Dr James Rwanyarare, a Uganda People’s Congress stalwart and senior politician, thinks Mbabazi’s silence is an indication that the Kinkiizi West MP knows that he is unpopular and therefore may not succeed if he decides to stand. In 2011, Dr Rwanyarare says, a delegation of voters from Kanungu reportedly told Museveni that they don’t want Mbabazi but the president urged them not to ditch his man. “I think he is reading his future in the party and calculating if it is the right time to jump off or hang on the sinking ship,” Rwanyarare says. The veteran politician insists that even if he announced his presidential ambitions now, Mbabazi would stand no chance. He believes Mbabazi’s silence and his refusal to rule out whether he will run for president is to enable him create a bargaining chip with Museveni. Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago says Mbabazi has taken the silence to “absurd levels,” because so many people have suffered and risked their lives for him. To keep silent, Lukwago says, is to endanger those people. “It is high time he announced his true intentions,” he said. Yona Kanyomozi, a former minister in the Obote II government, agrees with Lukwago. “Is he giving up the show? He may decide to take it up but I don’t think these people (Museveni and Mbabazi) are serious,” Kanyomozi says, adding that the latter is like a moon that glows when the sun shines but when the sun is withdrawn, the moon cannot glow anymore. Indeed, Mbabazi’s political rise and survival has to a big extent been aided by Museveni. It is Museveni who intervened on Mbabazi’s behalf when he was accused of influence peddling in the controversial NSSF-Temangalo land transaction. Museveni also supported Mbabazi’s bid to become NRM secretary general in 2005 and 2010. Therefore, his silence might in part be an acknowledgement of this relationship, fearing to take on a man who knows him inside out and has come to his rescue in the past. For Makerere University political science don Sabiiti Makara, Mbabazi’s silence is not helping him. Dr Makara argues that whereas his potential opponent Museveni is traversing the country, the ex-premier continues to keep his followers guessing. “It is possible Mbabazi has given up because he fears prosecution and persecution,” Makara said. “These are the same things he has been doing to others; so, he knows how far the NRM can go if he declares [his presidential bid].” However, seasoned scholar and author Timothy Wangusa, also a presidential advisor on literary affairs, says it is still too early to write off Mr Mbabazi. “Silence is golden,” Prof Wangusa said. “To the extent that he has not declared he will not stand, we should count him in rather than out. We should interpret his silence to mean he is still a force to reckon with.” Yet with 2016 just a year away, analysts will be closely watching Mbabazi’s next political steps with interest. Will he step up to the plate or wither away in political oblivion?
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 08:00:53 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015