Whilst our attention has been on the developing low pressure system over in WA, we have started to look at the possibility of some tropical development over the Gulf of Carpentaria and possibly even the northern Coral Sea over the next week or 2. Models are varying wildly about what may or may not happen. There is one very important thing that we do know however, being that the monsoonal flow currently ramping up over northern WA and the NW of the NT will spread east. When this occurs, it increases the chances of development of small low pressure systems further east as well. Some model guidance and ensemble guidance shows this chance. However it must be warned that models perform badly when it comes to pinpointing the initiation of systems. So all that we are saying is there will be an increased chance of development of at least a small circulation/s further east over the next couple of weeks through the GOC or CS. To highlight the difference in models (and to particularly highlight why no one should panic just yet), I have snap shot both the GFS and EC model runs for this coming Saturday. GFS goes all guns blazing as it can do at times when it struggles to pin point a proper development initiation point, and on the flip side the EC deterministic doesnt really have a bar it. As the week progresses we should get a better idea of whether or not there is any cause to delve deeper into the possibilities.
Posted on: Mon, 05 Jan 2015 00:15:52 +0000
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