Who will form govt, be PM? A swot analysis The 2014 poll race has its favourites and dark horses, but a long and arduous campaign will test them all. AAPs emergence has made the elections spicier, more unpredictable. A snapshot of major formations on current form: Congress and allies Strengths: Rahul Gandhi is undisputed leader, doesnt have any major in-house currents to deal with. As compared to BJP (especially Modi), Cong has a lower acceptance threshold - can make do with fewer seats to head a coalition. A figure of around 150 will keep it in the hunt Weaknesses: Losses in four state polls in December last year hurt the party, with inflation and corruption emerging as major vulnerabilities. Cong has to work on its campaign as Rahuls message does not mesh with the UPA governments record Opportunities: If rival BJP peaks too early and the socalled third front cant sort out leadership issues, Congress may have an opportunity to either lead a coalition or support one from outside as it has in the past Threats: An upbeat opposition is looking to exploit UPAs 10-year incumbency, particularly its scandal-ridden , paralytic second term. AAP could also eat into Congress votes. There is a danger that Congress may lose to both BJP and regional rivals and end up with a record low total Third/federal front Strengths: Unlike BJP and Congress, does not need a structured organization. The looseness of its amoeba-like formulation is its strength. It can add or shed constituents with equal ease Weaknesses: It has a surfeit of leaders and several contradictions. Leaders like Mamata Banerjee and CPMs Prakash Karat, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa, Mulayam Singh and Mayawati cannot sit at the same table Opportunities: Despite Modis campaign outreach, it is not clear if BJP will generate enough momentum to cross the 180-seat barrier. If it falters, a third front and its variants may have an opportunity to stake a claim, particularly as Congress is seen to be lagging Threats: In 2009, the perception that a chaotic third front could come to office was seen to have actually worked in Congresss favour. Fear of a patchwork coalition that cannot agree on a common agenda for governance (as experience has shown) pushed some of the floating vote towards Congress. This time, such concerns may benefit BJP more than Congress BJP and allies Strengths: Has an energetic campaigner in Narendra Modi who is drawing large crowds. Party has sorted out leadership issues and has emerged as the perceived front runner. Favourable opinion polls have boosted NDAs standing Weaknesses: The Gujarat 2002 riots remain Modis weak spot. NDA is weak in northeast and south India. It also has a scanty presence in West Bengal. The alliance is yet to dispel the distrust of minority voters Opportunities: Congress is at the weakest that it has been since 1996-98 . BJP could be in a position to win electoral fights in states where it directly takes on Congress. Decisive wins in these states could knock Congress out of reckoning at the Centre Threats: Anti-Modi leaders hope BJP does not race to a large Lok Sabha tally. Party organization at the central level not in the best of health after years of intense factionalism. Decision-making remains cumbersome. Groundlevel activism is weak. AAP could eat into anti-Cong votes Aam Aadmi Party Strengths: Enjoys instant name recognition in urban India, thanks to Arvind Kejriwal and his brand of headline-grabbing politics. Has native marketing savvy; wittingly or otherwise, has leveraged social media to its advantage. Its unconventional style of governance, which was on display during its 49 days in office , captured the imagination of the underclass Weaknesses: Does not have the financial resources to fight a full-scale national election. Has not had time to build a wide organization, lacks boots on the ground. May be hard-pressed to come up with a decent number of clean, electable candidates. Still largely an urban phenomenon Opportunities: Has tapped into public anger against corruption and crony capitalism. Not a business-as-usual political party, as Kejriwals relentless attacks on Mukesh Ambani have shown. May attract anti-Congress voters in urban seats, especially those not entirely comfortable with the idea of Modi as PM Threats: May have lost some of its support base among the middle class, thanks to Kejriwals dharna, Somnath Bhartis antics and its generally shrill style. May be considered incapable of making a national impact
Posted on: Thu, 06 Mar 2014 09:40:37 +0000
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