Whose Sole Candidate? For the past three weeks, I have had arguments (on Whatsapp, over drinks, even on radio), with a couple of friends over the real or perceived presidential ambitions of the now ex-PM, Amama Mbabazi. Most seem to argue that Amama does not have a permanent constituency (i.e. the church, youth, women or the army), and that the perceived support hes banking on was because of his perceived closeness to the president. Now that hes been given the sack, it is very unlikely many of his hitherto supporters will follow him in the political cold waters. One went ahead to even say that a group of the ex-PMs loyalists from Kanungu had trekked to state house over the last week, to deny rumours of any connection to the Mbabazi project and pledge their allegiance to the president. I dont buy this argument and here is why. I am not surprised that Mbabazi seems to be deserted - it is expected. Knowing the kind of character Museveni is; he will stop at nothing to avert any threat to his power. He will bribe, defame, shame, cajole, threaten or, in the worst case scenario, kill if he feels his power is under threat. Therefore no businessman, politician or cleric can afford to put their business, career or life on the line for Mbabazi - a situation that is further complicated by Mbabazi preferring to keep his supporters and foes alike second-guessing about his political future. Therefore, at this moment it is not so much what Amama does (or says) but rather what Museveni does about his (Mbabazis) ambitions. Any sort of publicity now, good or bad, is welcome for Mbabazi. If youre Museveni, this should have you worried sick! So what you see manifested as a projection of might - crowds (stage-managed?) to welcome the president from the U.S, ministers pledging allegiance to him as their sole candidate - could as well be signs of weakness. A pointer to something that the ministers and crowds know (that Museveni is at his weakest and will use any stunt to assure himself he is still a darling of many), and, hopefully, Museveni knows too but has decided to play along. Besides, it is not new in this part of the world. Mobutu and Bokassa could have as well won any election by 90+ per cent a year before they were deposed. They were made to believe, by their inner circles, that they were invincible, all-knowing and, as was in the case of Mobutu, sorcerers and seers! Songs were sang in their praise. For example, in 1984 Congolese musician Francois Luambo Makiadi (popularly known as Franco) composed the song Candidat na Biso - our sole candidate, heaping praise on Mobutu and calling upon Zaireans to cast the ballot for him because he is the only one who can guarantee their sovereignty. In one line Franco goes ahead to castigate Zaireans for hypocrisy and ingratitude to marshal Mobutu. We all know what became of Mobutus Zaire 14 years later. The crumbling of Mobutus empire is best described by an article by Ian Fisher that appeared in the New York Times of June 21, 2001. In it Fisher writes, It is almost possible, but not quite, to squeeze out a tear for Mobutu Sese Seko in his last days as the diminished dictator of Zaire. Everyone was cheating him, from his own children to the suppliers of the pink champagne he popped open each morning at 9. He had lost control of the military. He could not believe that after 32 years as unquestioned ruler, the Helmsman of a huge nation ridiculously endowed with natural riches, he could be defied. Such is common with leaders who stiffle dissent a la Mubarak in Egypt, Gadaffi in Libya. By attaching a high premium to government officials, businesses or religious leaders associating with or being thought as sympathetic to their opponents, they breed a group of opportunists and sycophants around them. These sycophants serve to massage the ego of the leader and, like weve seen with Mobutu, will come up with all sorts of names, titles and praises for the leader. These are the greatest threat to any leader. Forget the opposition. Finally, if I were in the presidents shoes, I would be so much worried about the new crop of praise-singers surrounding me than Mbabazi and his youths. For one thing, those who openly come out to support Mbabazi today, we could say, represent genuine support because; 1) They have exposed themselves and in the event that Amama does not stand or win, have all to lose. 2) We cannot say that they are motivated by anything Mbabazi has to offer - he is effectively out of government and therefore can neither secure them government tenders or political favours. What motivates them then? We should ask ourselves. On the other hand, it pays to be on the presidents side now more than ever before because he has got the private goods to dispense (scholarships, money, cars, government tenders, etc, etc.) Therefore, before we write off Mbabazi, it is prudent we did analyse the different factors at play now and trends in the near future leading up to 2016. Id say, eyes on the ball!
Posted on: Mon, 06 Oct 2014 19:57:04 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015