Why take the blame when you can push it onto others? Expect to see a Coalition reshuffle in which poor performers are demoted and Scott Morrison is given a position with daily access to the news cycle, writes Darrin Barnett. Tony Abbott may well be in the Hot Seat, but does he really want to be a millionaire? Its fair to say that November 2014 was a month of misery for the Prime Minister. Firstly, the Victorian election result was an unmitigated disaster. Australias second most populous state is now back in Labor hands and the Andrews Government, combined with fellow travellers in South Australia and the ACT, will now be expected to push back on a range of cuts to health, education and other social services coming out of Canberra. Despite the best efforts of senior federal ministers to play down federal issues on Sunday, it is painfully apparent that the Abbott Governments deeply unpopular May budget sits like a millstone around the Coalitions neck at all levels. After the Victorian poll, former federal treasurer Peter Costello said the budget was clearly toxic in Victoria, while former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett described Mr Abbotts Government as a shambles. Disturbingly, the dumping of a first-term government in Victoria for the first time in nearly 60 years means part of the the federal narrative this week and beyond will be about whether Abbott will suffer the same fate. The Prime Ministers November woes started at the G20, which turned out to be a global festival of one-upmanship with Abbott always seeming to come out one-down. A few days later, while heads of state filed through the House of Representatives to say what a great country Australia is and to praise the wisdom and grace of their hosts, the Senate was supposed to sit as a sideshow. Yet one of the Governments few significant achievements - the FOFA changes - were knocked off by the end of that week. The Senate is now no guarantee to pass anything at all, and with Government revenues tumbling, house prices soaring, and wages remaining stagnant - there are tougher times ahead of us than behind us. Last Mondays confirmation of cuts to the ABC and SBS clearly and obviously broke an election pledge, and saw the Governments credibility plunge into free fall. Christopher Pynes ridiculous community petition to guard against ABC cuts in his home state of South Australia when he is a cabinet minister made them look all the more sneaky and foolish. And just when you thought it couldnt get any worse, Defence Minister David Johnston insulted Australians and confused investors by saying he would not trust the Governments shipbuilder ASC to build a canoe. The $7 Medicare co-payment looked set to be shelved or abandoned altogether - with senior ministers then backing it the next morning - and Abbotts signature paid parental leave policy is rumoured to be in trouble. Things are so bad that even the Abbott cheer squad is barracking against him. They dont think the Government has convinced anyone of a budget emergency and serious questions remain about the overall communications strategy and lack of core narrative. Domestic issues, especially Budget cuts and broken promises, continue to kill the Government, News Ltd columnist Andrew Bolt said. The Abbott Government is doomed without narrative, The Australian newspaper editorialised. Prominent 2GB shock jock Alan Jones doesnt think the China FTA passed the pub test, while the normally unshakeable Dennis Shanahan opined in the Australian that Johnstons remark is part of a pattern of poor public messaging from him that also goes to the core of the political misjudgements of the Abbott government. So what to do? Abbott could do worse than call for a Lifeline. Fans of Channel Nines Who Wants To Be A Millionaire will recall that you have four options. The first is Ask the Audience. This could be done via a double dissolution. Unfortunately for Abbott, the polls are disastrous, ranging from 45:55 in Newspoll (two-party preferred) - in which the Coalition has trailed in 14 consecutive samples - to 48:52 in Essential. Add to that the Victorian result, and it doesnt look like a good idea if you want to stay in the game. The second is Phone a Friend. Well, the shock jocks and News Ltd are out, so what about new BFF Clive Palmer, with whom the Government had done deals on the Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) regulations as well as ending the carbon and mining taxes? Unfortunately, Jacqui Lambie and Ricky Muir have now formed the Coalition of Common Sense and voted to disallow the FOFA changes, which had taken away the obligation for financial advisers to act in their clients best interests. Lambie is also in direct negotiations with the Government on defence pay, having left her former party behind. In short, Clive no longer has the balance of power in the Senate and its now a proper mess. Could Julie Bishop be the first friend the PM is looking for on the end of the line? At times during November, Bishop was overseas indulging in easy photo ops and puff pieces while Abbott toughed it out at home - ironically, much like Abbott did to the hapless Treasurer Joe Hockey after the budget earlier this year. Shes appeared on the covers of both Fairfaxs Good Weekend and Harpers Bazaar as Woman of the Year in recent weeks, and is now among the most popular Coalition MPs for the leadership. Maybe shes not quite the mate Abbott is looking for. And as for Sundays call by Bishop for domestic nuclear power, at worst this was a senior minister now intent on product differentiation from the leader. Which leads us to Malcolm Turnbull, who was sent out last week to defend the ABC cuts. If got off to a good start with the Communications Minister arguing black is white and something about so-called efficiency dividends. Turnbull then shifted considerably by arguing that the Prime Minister was in fact clearly not a liar unless you looked at the actual quotes in question. He also admitted that the 4.9 per cent efficiency dividend was indeed a cut, with Abbott himself finally forced to concede of course I made that statement, and deliver a significant victory to his political opponents. The next Who Wants To Be A Millionaire option is the 50:50. This is a mechanism whereby two of four possibilities are knocked out, leaving a simpler choice for the right answer. Abbotts office tried to eliminate the $7 GP co-payment and the rest of his party has its eyes on paid parental leave, which would only leave deregulation of university fees and welfare reform in the too-hard Senate basket. But any move on the co-payment hit a speed bump if not a brick wall last week, so this method doesnt look like the way forward. Which leads us to the last option (which, for those playing at home, only lasted for a few seasons of Millionaire in the mid-00s): Switch The Question. And its here that one possibility arises. Why take the blame when you can push it onto others? So head for a reshuffle. Immigration Minister Scott Morrison, despite his self-imposed exile from the media, remains one of the Governments best media performers. While this speaks volumes in itself, there have been rumours circling in Canberra for some time that the Government wants to clean up Morrisons image by moving him somewhere else, possibly Defence - or even Treasury. One of the key things Abbott lacks is a head-kicker, a loyal foot soldier to go out and say undiplomatic things that move the debate closer to where he wants it. John Howard had Abbott. He also could use Peter Reith, Alexander Downer, or even Peter Costello to do some of the heavy lifting as the moment required. Abbott currently has no-one. Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard both had head kickers, although they seemingly forgot who the real enemy was. It was much to the Labor Governments detriment. But for Abbott, Morrison is that man. Hes not overly liked by the Gallery, but it doesnt seem to phase him and, besides, he stopped the boats. In addition to Defence, Abbott could easily add all things terrorism, and suddenly Morrison has daily access to the news cycle. Treasury would also offer a high-profile, and if the upcoming MYEFO announcement turns Cabinets worst fears to public nightmares, Hockey could find himself in a world of trouble. So just when you thought all was lost, Senator Johnston selflessly placed his head on the chopping block, and he will be gone sooner rather than later. The fact Abbott has declared his full confidence in the Minister is the best evidence yet that Johnstons time clock is ticking and a reshuffle is imminent.
Posted on: Mon, 01 Dec 2014 05:09:13 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015