Will there be any shift in India’s policy towards Bangladesh under Modi rule? With the change of regime now, the big question is whether New Delhi would make any shift in Indian foreign policy towards its next-door neighbour Bangladesh. So far, the reactions from political parties and analysts have followed two diametrically opposite lines. Dr.Asaduzzaman Ripon analyses the future relationship between Bangladesh and India, giving insights and making suggestions for improvement. A flurry of discussions has taken place in Bangladesh on the future Indo-Bangladesh relations centering India’s new external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj’s recent visit to Bangladesh . The victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its leader Narendra Modi in the Indian elections has given birth to such speculations. Because, the party in the state power of Bangladesh has already been controversial for its clinging to power through a farcical election where majority parties including the main contender for power boycotted the election. But it was only Indian Congress-led government which backed the Hasina regime here, whereas all major foreign countries advocated an inclusive election and still continues their best wishes to see an inclusive election through a dialogue between the government and the main opposition for holding an acceptable national election. Undoubtedly, as the closest neighbour, Indian politics and elections always draw attention in Bangladesh; India, too, has been a widely discussed factor in domestic politics for last few years. Even after independence of Bangladesh and many years after it, India’s interest to influence Bangladesh’s domestic politics had never been visible distinctly as it was first traced in late 2006, where the Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka Pinak Ranjan Chakraborty, whose ancestral family left Bangladesh for today’s India immediate before the partition of the sub-continent in 1947, expressed his country’s concern over Bangladesh’s internal political impasse. This time around, the issue has been pertinent because of the Indian role believed to be in holding the one-sided 5 January 2014 elections in Bangladesh. The Indian government, particularly the then ruling Indian National Congress (INC) provided unqualified support to the Awami League (AL) in holding an election without the participation of opposition parties, in particular the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The Indian Congress-led government’s policymakers not only subscribed to the AL argument’s views that the election is an obligation for constitutional continuation, but also went beyond decency and diplomatic norms by suggesting that participation of the BNP and its allies, especially the Bangladesh Jamaat-i-Islami (BJI) may bring “Islamists” to power. Ironically, in their own country, Congress could not halt the resurgence of the politics of Hindu fundamentalism in the name of Hindutva or Hindu nationalism and lost the election where they could not find any formidable place in the opposition bench. However, in Bangladesh, there is no question about it. Politicians here, consider the election result of India in favour of BJP as the reflection of the Indian peoples will. In 2013 Indian policymakers provided an impression that the BNP’s victory, as it was assumed for the party’s popularity, would undermine the spirit of cooperation in Indo-Bangladesh relations. Even, the Indian foreign secretary Mrs. Sujata Singh shouldered the trouble to travel to Dhaka immediate before the farcical election and attempted to broker a patch-up with the former military dictator-turned-‘politician’ HM Ershad to smoothen the process of keeping Awami Legue in power for another term. This has led to the other political parties questioning Indian policymakers’ commitment to supporting a stable multi-party democracy in Bangladesh. India’s overt, and at times ham-fisted, meddling in Bangladeshi politics has led to and fueled anti-Indian sentiment amongst the populace. Indian government of that time committed a big mistake. Now, an opportunity has come to India to revisit the relations and instill elements of trust in Bangladeshi people who could not exercise their rights to vote in the last election to pick their choice of leaders and the government to represent them. Because, they believe, it is the Congress-led Indian government which patronised the Hasina government which, by dint of foreign power’s backing deprived their fundamental electoral right. Thus Bangladesh has turned into a country of an authoritarian rule characterized by a reign of terror, fear of abductions, killing and persecutions. The Modi government, more particularly, Mrs. Sushma Swaraj, the new external affairs minister, who has been blessed with a vast political wisdom and sagacity, can show the courage to correct the mistake that immediate past Congress government did in the pretext of rising Islamist force in Bangladesh. India, as the world’s largest democracy, can uphold its moral position in support of the national demand for an inclusive election in Bangladesh. The team of Mr. Modi can give a clear message that they are interested in friendly relations with Bangladesh and its people, not with a particular political party. Such message can act as assurance to the people of Bangladesh that democracy is the mode of governance that can promote friendly bilateral relations. Sushma Swaraj is understandably quite aware of the mindset of Begum Khaleda Zia, the leader of the main opposition party. They had good conversations when the former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia, was invited at her house in New Delhi in 2012. Sushma Swaraj greeted Khaleda Zia very warmly. Khaleda Zia by understanding well about the much-talked role of India in the January 5 poll, did not hesitate to reaffirm her outlook that her party BNP wants to maintain good and sincere relations with India at the same time she emphasised such ties must be based on mutual respect and benefits when she talked to Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka Pankaj Saran on January 16. Awami League in Bangladesh and the Indian National Congress have historically shared a close bonding – dating back to Indira Gandhi’s unambiguous support to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman-Tazuddin Ahmed during Bangladesh’s War of Independence. This has, unfortunately, resulted in “special Congress government-to-AL government relations” – as perceived by the Prime Minister’s Office determining New Delhi’s foreign policy towards Bangladesh. It was also observed in the same manner in Bangladesh. The Indian Congress-led government has provided strong support to the Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina since 2008. It had openly expressed its desire to see the so-called secular forces in power in Bangladesh as evidenced by India’s external affairs secretary Sujatha Singh’s visit to Dhaka in December 2013. The Indian Congress’s overt and explicit regime-centric applause in favour of Awami League was on show in the mockery of elections on January 5, which was boycotted by the leading opposition party – Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). With the victory of the most significant religio-political party of the region - the BJP - many are finding it ironic that when Indian rulers were concerned about the rise of the Islamists in Bangladesh, it failed to gauge that they are going to face a devastating defeat to a non-secular party. However, the reasons for the defeat of the INC are manifold. But for Bangladeshis, the key question is: will there be any shift? Indian High Commissioner Pankaj Saran has meanwhile said the political and diplomatic relations between Bangladesh and India will be strengthened further under the government of Narendra Modi. In the opinion of former foreign secretary, Faruk Chowdhury, ‘’BJP’s landslide victory in India’s parliamentary election may strain diplomatic ties between India and Bangladesh.’’ So far, the reactions from political parties and analysts have followed two diametrically opposite lines. Some are suggesting that there will be a change; even if it is not a complete reversal; there will be a course correction. Others have dismissed this line of argument pointing to the history of Indian foreign policy and its continuity through various regimes. Dr. Imtiaz Ahmed, Professor at Department of International Relations, the University of Dhaka, says ‘’Norendra Modi’s win could “create psychological differences between the two (India & Bangladesh) administrations.” Faruk Ahmed, a political analyst, says, “The BJP government may wish to look for ways to demonstrate how they differ from Congress in their approach, and given the international criticism of the last governments stance on Bangladesh, that could be one option for them to counter likely criticism of any domestic measures they may want to put in place within India.” And with the swearing of Narendra Damodardas Modi as the 15th Prime Minister of the Republic of India, the country sets off for a new journey and simultaneously, breaks its chord to the “Tryst with Destiny” of Nehru proclaimed in 1947 during independence of India. The spectacular rise of the Modi phenomenon, if truth be told, has what is widely said as Modi-fied India highly and surely; If political pundits are believed, India will no more be the same or follow the track of 1947-2014 (May 25). The sole deduction for this has been aggressive posture of Modi during the last Parliamentary Election, 2014 and the overwhelming support he received that led to a landslide for his party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). One may ask what India could do for Bangladesh at its juncture. BJP in India usually criticised as sectarian and extremist might look for an easily achievable foreign policy initiative to counter such criticism. Bangladesh could offer such an opportunity for the BJP if its leadership wanted to take it up. Indeed, many procedures can be adopted to strengthen the bilateral relation between the two countries; the proposed Teesta Water Sharing Treaty might be the first step. Such Treaty is of immense significance for Bangladesh as the country is suffering for years due to non-availability of adequate amount of water. Mr. Modi takes all pains to turn this dream of Bangladeshis into reality. Mr. believes in ‘A strong India’ concept but that must have the benediction of a prosperous subcontinent. The new Indian government must remember that a flame in the neighbour’s courtyard or roof is equally dangerous to them as well. India can’t afford to lose Bangladesh’s friendship ever. However, foreign policy of any country depends on a combination of internal and external factors ranging from domestic public opinion, political culture and institutions, level of socio-economic-military development, to the countrys status and aspirations in the regional scene and the international system, its capacity to project national power outward and the prevailing normative trends in the international system. Those who are expecting the change, for example, have only one fact to support their expectation: the BJP is not the INC. The difference in ideological orientation between the INC and the BJP is the sole basis of this expectation. Supporters of this line of argument are of the opinion that the (Congress-envisaged) Indian policy towards Bangladesh is detrimental to Indian interests in the long run. But they neglect to consider the fact that the relationship between these two countries in the past five years has been beneficial to India. India has practically secured almost all it wanted its neighbour to deliver without making any concessions. Undoubtedly, the relationship is skewed in favour of India. During the election campaign Norendra Modi and his buddies have made some highly inflammatory statements about Bangladesh; for example, all migrant Bangladeshis will be thrown out of India. Another BJP leader said India will demand one-third of Bangladesh to accommodate the Bangladeshi Muslim migrants. Although these statements show the BJPs hard stance, it cannot be the central plank of its policy towards its neighbour. No matter how tough BJP might seem, it was under the last BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee that relationship normalisation efforts with Pakistan like the 1999 bus diplomacy, the 2001 Agra Summit and the 2004 Islamabad Summit took place. BJP government criticised the 1996 Treaty between Bangladesh and India on sharing the water of the Ganges, but it did not nullify it after coming to power. On other unresolved issues, be it water sharing or land border agreements, the BJPs apparent position is much more stringent than the Indian National Congress. So, expectation that there will be an immediate course correction may lead to dissatisfaction. But those who are pointing to the continuity theory may have more to back up their arguments, though the thrust of Indian foreign policy has been consistent throughout the past half century. It cannot be ignored that bilateral relationships are not wholly separate from Indias relationship with other countries, particularly the big powers. Besides, the Indo-Bangladesh relationship and Indias position on the Bangladesh election did draw censure from many countries including the United States. Norendra Modi has invited SAARC leaders including Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Sri Lankan President Mahindra Rajapaksa for his swearing-in ceremony despite protests at home. By inviting leaders from neighbourhood at his swearing ceremony, he hinted for a positive diplomacy. Apart from formal events, the new government in Delhi will have to negotiate complex and interconnected relationships in the neighbourhood and of course, it is believed Mr. Modi and his team has that courage to progress the relationship. Modi values the neighbourhood and it was manifested during his swearing-in ceremony. Through this he hinted at his priority list, too. Every country is involved in some way or the other in contentious religious, ethnic or territorial matters with the other. Consider the matter of enclaves - little patches of a country within the territorial limits of another country. The most complex set of enclaves happen to be between the Dutch and the Belgians, but they have managed it amicably for the last two hundred years. But both India and Bangladesh have enclaves in both countries. Sometimes enclaves within enclaves and resolving the problem amicably is the success of prudent diplomacy. The new regime will have to keep in mind to execute the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) between India and Bangladesh sensibly. In fact, when it comes to India-Bangladesh bilateral relations, the list of irritants is quite long. It ranges from sharing waters of the common rivers and cross-border movement of people (border killings), incidences of abduction of Bangladeshi citizens from bordering area to balance of trade (reducing deficit), addressing border disputes and many more. History tells us some time that regime change does not affect India-Bangladesh water negotiations to that extent. For example the Joint Rivers Commission was established in 1972 when Mrs. Gandhi was in power but the five-year Ganges Agreement in 1977 was signed during the Janata government led by Moraji Desai and President Zia’s rule in Bangladesh, the MoU in 1985 on dry season flow regulation was signed under the initiative of Indian premier Rajiv Gandhi while Bangladesh was ruled by military junta, and the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty was concluded during United Front government headed by Deve Gowda, a non-Congress leader. Of course, the political will of the West Bengal government and the active involvement of late Jyoti Basu, then chief minister of West Bengal, helped signing the Treaty in 1996. Since Indian constitution provides the state governments the privilege to choose on natural resource sharing issues, the new Indian government at the centre not necessarily will have to rely on State governments solely all the time in formulating and implementing relevant policies because like previous Congress-led UPA government BJP will not have to depend on coalition partners, as they have sufficient majority in parliament. It is not the appropriate time to understand the future line of Indian policy towards Bangladesh. But factors which may dominate changes in the policy towards another country under a new regime can be examined. Is BJP leadership of the opinion that the policy taken by the previous Congress government towards Bangladesh has long term implications which will be injurious to India? In that case answer is yes, and then it may be the BJP’s responsibility or discretion to make changes. Secondly, there has been a change in the domestic politics of Bangladesh since the election in January. The sitting government is losing support drastically for holding power without an inclusive election and thus void of a representative character government. India’s new government may not continue to support this government on the plea of continuity of the constitution of Bangladesh. Because Bangladesh constitution says in article65 (2) about the establishment of parliament as ‘’Parliament shall consist of three hundred members to be elected in accordance with law from single territorial constituencies by direct election.’’ Unfortunately, people of Bangladesh could not get the opportunity to vote in 154 seats of the parliament. Constitutionally, the present parliament is not formed properly with people’s representatives. Even the so-called opposition party in parliament is not legitimately represented in parliament as the party chief Ershad himself questioned even he does not know he has been elected! Turnout of voters was remarkably low (around five percent), the voting was rigged, and the administration later manipulated the statistics. It is difficult to understand how the new government of India will progress the bilateral relations with a government in Bangladesh which legitimacy is questioned. The third factor is: India may change its policy towards Bangladesh; more particularly she can echo the voice like EU countries and the US for a dialogue and engagement with main opposition BNP for an inclusive election. The differences between the USA and India and the European Community on this issue was well-known. After the regime change in India, will Bangladesh be on the agenda in conversation between India and the EU and/or the USA? One may ask what India will gain from the change. The answer is simple the US axis to Asia, and the imminent withdrawal from Afghanistan, creates a US imperative for a renewed closer engagement between India and the US. On the Indian side, Modis promise of higher growth encourages it to attract US investments. It is believed India will renegotiate its relationship with international community as the BJP manifesto indicated. Undoubtedly, Mr. Norendra Mode has demonstrated his charm as a seasoned politician in wooing considerable number of Indian voters. But he has yet to demonstrate his capabilities as a statesman who will not only ensure Indian interests but also respect, recognise and realise the aspirations and wishes of its neighbouring countries. This will go a long way in healing the strained relations and clearing the air of doubts, suspicions and mistrust in the region. He would not need to look further than the example set by Vajpayee as foreign minister during the reign of Janata Dal’s coalition government during the late 1970s. A meaningful, substantive multiparty democracy in Bangladesh would go a long way in reducing political uncertainty and policy continuity in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi political parties must also exhibit maturity and shy away from India baiting to flame anti-Indian sentiments in the country. India is a huge neighbour and Bangladesh must reach a mutually satisfactory accommodation with India. India too must rectify long standing Bangladeshi grievances as a proof of its goodwill. Bangladesh and India would have to prosper and grow together for peace and prosperity for the countries and the region. At present, major political parties in Bangladesh are positive to India. Both Prime Minister Hasina and Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chief Khaleda Zia called up Modi to congratulate him and even the Jamaat-e-Islami congratulated Modi on his victory before many world leaders. The sitting government in Bangladesh known as pro-Congress- India government while the former prime minister and main opposition leader views about Indo Bangladesh relations ‘’Being immediate neighbours, we are destined to live with each other and we must do so in peace and harmony. We cannot mean any ill to each other; neither can we afford any malice between us.’’ Begum Khaleda Zia, during her visit to India on October 28-November 3, 2012, appreciated India’s security concerns and gave an assurance that terrorists and anti-India insurgents would not be allowed on Bangladeshi soil if she comes to power again. According to Indian media reports, the former Prime Minister, who was a staunch critic of the Sheikh Hasina government’s improved relations with India under Congress led government, also reportedly supported India’s participation in a consortium with China to build a deep-sea port at Bangladesh’s Sonadia. Since, India is given assurance to address its security concern by Bangladeshi politicians, now it is the turn of the Indian new government led by Norendra Modi to escalate the bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh and India should respect the will of people of Bangladesh in terms of a free, fair, credible and inclusive election and change their previous attitude towards Bangladesh election and the new leadership should come forward to resolve other irritants which hamper the positive growth of Indo- Bangladesh relations.
Posted on: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 09:45:14 +0000
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