With the Oscar nominations being announced tomorrow, its time for Oscar Predictions, Round Two: As I do every year, Ive been digging through the various awards that have been coming out for the past month or so, and assigning a point system, one point for a nomination, two points for a win. This helps show whos in the lead, as well as when the tide is shifting from one person to another. So with each category, Ill show the number of points next to the person or title. Ive eliminated any person or film that received less than three points. With each category, I will be making my final predictions, along with one runner-up prediction. So we start with... BEST PICTURE Heres whos in the lead... Boyhood (47) Birdman (35) The Grand Budapest Hotel (26) The Imitation Game (17) Whiplash (17) Selma (16) Nightcrawler (15) Gone Girl (11) The Theory of Everything (9) A Most Violent Year (6) Under the Skin (6) American Sniper (5) Snowpiercer (5) Inherent Vice (5) Foxcatcher (3) The Lego Movie (3) Unbroken (3) Now the first thing to note is that it is very rare that the top five or ten or whatever on this points list are the ones that get nominated. Surprises happen frequently, so its about using points, industry knowledge, history, and plain old gut feelings to make these predictions. Having said that, I think we can definitely expect to see the top four on the list. Boyhood is the front-runner here (having won the Golden Globe on Sunday), Fox Searchlight is backing both Birdman and Grand Budapest Hotel (with the latter having the bonus points of Scott Rudin behind it), and Harvey Weinstein is behind The Imitation Game. We can also expect The Theory of Everything, which will get Focus Features on the list. So thats five, and the rules are that between five to ten movies can get nominated. Since they created that rule, the magic number has been nine, but Im still going with ten, just in case. I think Whiplash and Selma will both get on there, as theyre both very powerful movies (in very different ways), and both signal a rising new talent in filmmaking. Nightcrawler also does the same thing as these previous two movies, but whereas Whiplashs intensity is rousing, and Selmas is inspiring ... Nightcrawlers is just as creepy and unsettling as its title. Its one of the best movies of the year without a doubt. But it might have turned some people off, and therefore have to work harder to get on the list. Meanwhile, there are three movies on here from directors who the Academy loves: Clint Eastwoods American Sniper, Bennett Millers Foxcatcher, and David Finchers Gone Girl. If were going with ten nominees, I suspect these three will bump Nightcrawler off of the list. Predictions: American Sniper Birdman Boyhood Foxcatcher Gone Girl The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Selma The Theory of Everything Whiplash Runner-Up: Nightcrawler BEST DIRECTOR The points list: Richard Linklater - Boyhood (51) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Birdman (28) Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel (18) Ava DuVernay - Selma (10) David Fincher - Gone Girl (9) Damien Chazelle - Whiplash (8) Jonathan Glazer - Under the Skin (5) Clint Eastwood - American Sniper (4) Dan Gilroy - Nightcrawler (4) Mike Leigh - Mr. Turner (3) History could be made tomorrow with Ava DuVernay becoming the first black woman to be nominated for Best Director. I hope it happens, I want it to happen, she did an amazing job. But it very well might not. Linklater is in the lead here, with Inarritu still in a strong second (both of those movies, in their very different ways, wore their gimmicks on their sleeves, which is part of what made them so memorable). And I think Wes Anderson will finally get on this list with a film that is a bit more accessible to Academy voters while still being undeniably Anderson. So we have two slots left. Clint Eastwood often gets on there, and very well could again (especially with the DGA nomination). David Fincher keeps popping up on nominations (though not the DGA), and is also a good bet. Or the Academy could go with its two rising stars with Chazelle and DuVernay. I predict one of Column A, one of Column B, honoring Eastwood and Chazelle (who helmed the most rousing and perfectly edited finale of this years films), which will make the list a mostly-white sausage fest (which, sadly, it usually is). Predictions: Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel Damien Chazelle - Whiplash Clint Eastwood - American Sniper Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Birdman Richard Linklater - Boyhood Runner-Up: David Fincher - Gone Girl BEST ACTRESS The points list: Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl (34) Julianne Moore - Still Alice (28) Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night (21) Reese Witherspoon - Wild (22) Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything (11) Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant (8) Essie Davis - The Babadook (8) Scarlett Johansson - Under the Skin (7) Amy Adams - Big Eyes (4) Hilary Swank - The Homesman (4) Jennifer Aniston - Cake (3) Now its worth noting that The Babadook is not on the eligible list of films for some reason, so Essie Davis - very sadly - is out (I cant remember the last time I saw an Oscar-worthy horror performance, but by god, she gave one). Rosamund Pike, Julianne Moore, and Reese Witherspoon are all getting a number of critics awards, and I would be very surprised if any of them were left off the list. And I think the fourth slot will be taken by Felicity Jones, who Ive been told is the rock that holds that movie together (I have yet to make my way out to see it). So for that final slot, I think Marion Cotillard might split her own vote (Do you nominate her for Two Days, One Night or The Immigrant?), and Scarlett Johanssons performance was too subtle in a movie that was WAYYYYYY too weird (though one of my favorites of the year). So that leaves us Oscar favorites Hilary Swank and Amy Adams (and since Adams won the Globe and has Weinsteins backing, tip the scales in her direction), as well as Jennifer Aniston. Aniston got the Globe and SAG nominations, and shes been around for a while without having cracked that Oscar nut. However, the mixed reviews for the movie might hurt its chances, and theres usually a Globe/SAG nominee that ends up getting left off of the list (Last year, it was Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks). So Im going with my gut on this one and choosing Adams. Predictions: Amy Adams - Big Eyes Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything Julianne Moore - Still Alice Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl Reese Witherspoon - Wild Runner-Up: Jennifer Aniston - Cake BEST ACTOR The points list: Michael Keaton - Birdman (44) Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler (26) Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything (23) Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game (16) Ralph Fiennes - The Grand Budapest Hotel (13) Tom Hardy - Locke (10) David Oyelowo - Selma (9) Timothy Spall - Mr. Turner (9) Brendan Gleeson - Calvary (6) Steve Carell - Foxcatcher (3) Bradley Cooper - American Sniper (3) Oscar Isaac - A Most Violent Year (3) They could just hand the award to Michael Keaton right now, as far as Im concerned. Its big, its brave, its multi-layered, and its the comeback of a guy who everyone seems to love. After that, I think you can put Benedict Cumberbatch and Eddie Redmayne on there, as they both are hitting a number of the Oscar bait qualifications (British + Real person + Genius + Tormented = Nomination!). And I think Jake Gyllenhaal will get on there, because Jake Gyllenhaal SHOULD get on there. Its a scenery-chewing performance thats still very subtle and nuanced, a creepy performance that you nonetheless want to follow. Its a feat similar to De Niro in Taxi Driver, and its undeniably great. This fifth slot, though ... this one is super tough. I can really see any of these guys getting on the list. You have Ralph Fiennes, one of our greatest actors, in a comic performance the likes of which we havent seen from him. You have David Oyelowo, who takes one of the most iconic 20th century figures and gives a performance that quickly moves past impersonation into something powerful and real. You have Timothy Spall, who won Best Actor at Cannes, and is working with a director who often gets nominations out of his actors. You have Tom Hardy, who turned in a brilliant one-man show (though in a flawed movie that few people saw). And Bradley Cooper is becoming an Oscar favorite, having snagged nominations at the last two ceremonies. But for this one, Im going with Steve Carell in Foxcatcher. Despite getting only two nominations, theyre the Globes and SAG, which are the two big ones. Hes a comic actor turning dramatic, hes playing a real person, and its one of those physical transformation kind of performances that people go nuts for. I personally was disappointed by it, but Im not the Academy. I have a feeling that hes going to sneak on the list here. Predictions: Steve Carell - Foxcatcher Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler Michael Keaton - Birdman Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything Runner-Up: Bradley Cooper - American Sniper BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS The points list: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood (47) Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year (22) Emma Stone - Birdman (21) Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer (17) Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game (12) Agata Kulesza - Ida (6) Rene Russo - Nightcrawler (6) Laura Dern - Wild (5) Carrie Coon - Gone Girl (3) Meryl Streep - Into the Woods (3) Again, I think Arquette is the lock here. Its a beautiful 12-year performance that reminds us why we like her. You can also expect Chastain, who I think will join the ranks of Amy Adams and Meryl Streep of getting nominated every couple years or so, and Emma Stone, who transforms her comic persona into something very real. Knightley will most likely get on there as well, not necessarily because its award-worthy, but because its a good performance in an award-worthy film. So for that final slot, Rene Russo is my favorite here, as her character beautifully rose to Gyllenhaals level of creepiness (however, theres a very good chance that her performance will be overshadowed by the aforementioned Jake). Tilda Swintons character was a complete original, and deserves to be on the list, but I think its too weird of a performance in too weird of a movie. (The same thing happened a couple years ago when James Franco was a Supporting Actor frontrunner for Spring Breakers) Laura Dern was an early favorite, but faded as the weeks went on. Meanwhile, Meryl got the Globe and SAG nominations, her performance of Stay With Me is a perfect Oscar clip, and ... well, shes Meryl. Shes one of the most fun actresses to watch, and you can tell shes having a blast in this one. I think shes taking it. Predictions: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game Emma Stone - Birdman Meryl Streep - Into the Woods Runner-Up: Rene Russo - Nightcrawler BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR J.K. Simmons - Whiplash (58) Edward Norton - Birdman (32) Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher (20) Ethan Hawke - Boyhood (17) Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice (7) Robert Duvall - The Judge (3) First off, let me say for the record that Im sad that Riz Ahmed is not getting more notice for Nightcrawler. He enters the movie with very little fanfare and exits as its only sympathetic character. It was quiet and brilliant, and it makes me sad that hes probably not getting noticed. Meanwhile, J.K. Simmons is the highest point-scorer on any of these lists, and for good reason. His performance is near-perfect, and hes created a great body of work throughout his 20 years in the industry. And Ill be very surprised if the second through fourth slots arent Norton, Ruffalo and Hawke, as theyve been the top four nominees in pretty much every award given out this season. That fifth slot will likely come down to Duvall, who got the SAG and Globe nominations, or Brolin, whos been a critics favorite. I havent seen either, but Im leaning more toward Brolin, as his movie was better received. Or it could be Riz Ahmed. Just saying. Predictions: Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice Ethan Hawke - Boyhood Edward Norton - Birdman Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher J.K. Simmons - Whiplash Runner-Up: Robert Duvall - The Judge BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Birdman (39) The Grand Budapest Hotel (34) Boyhood (23) Nightcrawler (13) Calvary (4) The Lego Movie (3) A Most Violent Year (3) Selma (3) First off, its worth noting that the Academy is regarding Whiplash as an adapted screenplay (more on that below). So taking it out of the running, this is the closest race of the major categories this year. The Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman are both unique, fully original stories that are beautifully told. The race is so close at this point that it may cause a split vote, in which case Boyhood or Nightcrawler could pick it up. But what about that final slot? My pick is Selma. Despite its moments of Oscar-baitness, its a very powerful movie whose fantastic structure proves that great screenplays are not just about good dialogue. Now while I wouldnt be surprised to see Calvary (written by previous nominee Martin McDonaghs brother) or A Most Violent Year (from previous nominee J.C. Chandor) on there (I would be surprised to see The Lego Movie), my runner-up is one that didnt get enough points to get on this list: Foxcatcher. Its a more important movie than the others on the list, and I think if it gets Picture, Actor, and Supporting Actor nominations, that Original Screenplay would not be far behind. (Again, I dont agree, but thats me) Predictions: Birdman Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel Nightcrawler Selma Runner-Up: Foxcatcher ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Gone Girl (27) Inherent Vice (17) Whiplash (16) The Imitation Game (12) Wild (10) The Theory of Everything (7) Snowpiercer (5) American Sniper (3) Unbroken (3) Okay, so Whiplash. To get funding to make this film, Damien Chazelle made a condensed version first, a way to say See, I can make a movie, now give me money. But because it was shown in theaters, that meets the Academys qualifications of adapted from a previously produced or published work. So Whiplash sneaks into third place on the Adapted list. However, I dont know that any of that matters, since its most likely going to Gillian Flynn, adapting her own best-selling novel. Besides those two, I think that The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything will both get on there thanks to their Best Picture nominations. And for that final slot, it comes down to American Sniper, Inherent Vice, and Wild. Despite its high presence on the list (and despite being written by three-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson), Inherent Vice has been very polarizing, with many people seeing its hard-to-follow story as a detriment. And despite Wild getting more recognition (and having the famous novelist pedigree of Nick Hornby behind its adaptation), I see American Sniper following this trend of sneaking on to the list (which is appropriate for a sniper, I guess). Predictions: American Sniper Gone Girl The Imitation Game The Theory of Everything Whiplash Runner-Up: Wild The nominations will be announced tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and can be watched live on oscars.go. I welcome any and all debates, questions, ideas, theories, and lets check in tomorrow to see how we did.
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 15:45:50 +0000
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