Wonk Warning! Sometimes politics is not about being right. Sometimes its about being brutal. Thats why, generally speaking, I like Barack Obama and David Cameron. They tend to do what they think is best, eschew politics, and shrug their shoulders if they lose the odd one. But, if you want to survive in the cruel game of politics, it cant always be so. In the attached article, one of my very favorite UK columnists has this time got it wrong. After two of his right-wing MPs defected to UKIP in October, Dave couldnt afford the luxury of the moral high ground, arguing that UKIP were wrong. Dave had pretty much been using that line before October, in an attempt to marginalize and dismiss UKIP. It hadnt worked, cf. two defections. What Dave had to do was staunch the flow. Stop any more defections. And fast. He did this with what I perceive was a three-pronged attack: 1) He engaged in a barnstorming process of out-Kipping UKIP. Effectively saying to his wobbly right-wing, whatever you want, you got it here. 2) He made the Rochester By-Election the battleground. Not because he expected to win. But to make an example of Mark Reckless. So the message was delivered as bluntly as possible to any others thinking of defecting: I draw the line here. This is what will happen. I will use your wedding guests against you. I will bring the full weight of a 200 year old political party down on your head. 3) Cant prove it. But reading between the lines, I think he, Gove and May set up the European Arrest Warrant fiasco. Not to avoid a rebellion. Was never going to be avoided. But to trick his right-wing rebels into appearing to plot with Labour and the hated Speaker. So that he would have that lever against them. Have you noticed that all of the screaming and yelling by said right-wing has suddenly disappeared? None of this is pretty. I dont like it. Its why I would never return to serious national politics. Its unavoidable. Its like wanting to play rugby. And expecting not to get hurt. But. It looks like its going to prove successful. The Tories will lose Rochester. But I predict there will be no further defections. Benefits tourism has been declared illegal. Merkel is looking silly. Juncker will have to resign. And Dave will look like a genius. The Tories can then use the Autumn Statement to bring the narrative back to the economy. Miliband will continue to be the empty vessel. Farage will drink eggnog. And by Christmas, the Tories will be a solid 2-3% ahead in all the polls.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 15:54:56 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015