World Cup 1 [This is the first of a number of posts about the World Cup. At some point soon I will create a group of folks interested in following and commenting on this, and move my further posts there. Feel free to correct my mistakes or to ask questions. This is designed to be an exchange of views on the subject. Respond to this post or message me if you wish to follow.] To begin, lets set the table. I will assume nothing, or at least very little. Overkill is my typical modus operandi. The 2014 World Cup mens football, or, as we in the states call it, soccer, competition will begin June 12 and will conclude July 13, in Brazil. The first round consists of round robin play among eight groups of four each--that means each team will play three matches, one each against every other team in their group. The top two teams in each group advance to the knock-out round, which is soccer terminology for a conventional tournament in which the remaining 16 teams play four rounds of single elimination, each loss meaning a team goes home, altho after the semi-finals there will be a playoff for third place. The qualifying teams represent their respective nations, with all of the players being citizens of that nation. Which is not to say they were all born in the nation they now are citizens of--there is some movement from birth to World Cup. The teams qualified during 2013, with teams from a given region of the world playing amongst themselves for the right to go to Brazil. There are a disproportionate number of teams from Europe and South America, but that reflects the reality of the sport. Since the first World Cup in 1930 every single team playing in the finals has been from one of those two regions. It will be interesting to see someday which team will be the first to break this stranglehold, but I suspect we will not learn that this year. The most successful teams in World Cup history have been Brazil, Italy, Germany and Argentina, with very respectable showings from Uruguay and the Netherlands. The teams considered to be the top four this year (in order) are Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain, Spain being the reigning champion from 2010. Italy, the Netherlands and Uruguay are all very strong teams again, just not quite in the first rank. So some things dont change much. The US women were, you may recall, winners of the female version of the cup in 1991 and 1999, and have also been runner-ups once and third place finishers three times in the six such competitions. The US men have not had comparable success, but they have qualified for the cup each four years since 1990, which indicates a consistent level of modest success. They were third in the first World Cup in 1930, and have reached the quarter-finals once more recently. I understand that there is now a soccer league in my home town of Logan, extending down in age to kids that are 4 and 5. When these kids are 25 maybe the US will get to the mens semi-finals. Perhaps. The eight groups were seeded in such a way as to guarantee that the finals will likely have two of the top teams. I think, barring an upset, some of which always occur, that Brazil and Germany will likely play for one final place and the other will likely be between Argentina and either Spain or Chile, possible Uruguay. But this possible eventuality does not mean this is a boring tournament. At least not necessarily. I will be noting what the various rating systems suggest about which teams should emerge from the round robin, as well as the betting favorites, and other stuff. You can cheer for the underdogs, or cheer for the favorites. You can feel free to support a team for any non-soccer reason. You might like France because of their wines (wines seeming to be almost as popular on FB as flowers and pets), or dislike Russia because of recent political events. You can cheer for the freewheeling style of, say, Brazil, or for the more tightly-controlled play of Germany or Spain. If you want to see a non-European and non-South American team in the finals, you should probably root for Ivory Coast or the US or Mexico, the highest ranked teams from any other region. (In this case, be happy just if your team makes it out of the first round.) As I get older I find myself increasingly rooting against more teams than ones I want to see do well. You can dislike a team for any reason. Too much recent success is a perfectly fine reason to dislike a team. I feel that way about the NE Patriots, for example. The US is in Group G, together with Germany, Portugal and Ghana. Since the US is generally ranked in the second ten worldwide while Germany is one of the top four and Portugal is consistently ranked above the US, we will have some difficulty getting to the second round. This is not the most difficult group to be in, but there are several that would have been easier. Russia and Mexico have it easier, but, as the US coach has observed, to go deep into the tournament you have to beat better-ranked teams, so they might as well start right away. In this case we will initially be hoping to beat out Portugal for the second spot. Two wins out of the three matches would guarantee advancement, one win and two ties would almost guarantee it, and one win-one tie-one loss would make it close, likely depending upon the goal differential. You get three points for a win and one for a tie, but often two (occasionally three, and once upon a time all four) teams are tied on the basis of points after the round robin. Goal differential means looking at how many goals you have scored vs. how many your opponents have scored in your three matches, compared to the goal differential of the team or teams you are tied with on points. If goal differential is tied as well, you go to number of goals scored, then a couple of other tie-breakers. As a result of the frequent significance of goal differential, each and every goal scored or allowed can be critically important. I can not emphasize this enough. Even if you are losing 2-0 to Germany late in the match, it is still absolutely necessary to try your damnedest to score at least one goal. If you are winning by 3-0 late in a match, say against Ghana (I wish--they were the team that knocked us out in 2010, in the first game of the second round), it is still necessary to try to score one or two more goals. No team ever lets up, as long as they have a mathematical possibility of advancing. Some teams might lose a little enthusiasm after they lose two matches, but national pride typically makes them still play with the same intensity just to deny their last opponent an easy path. Because there are so few matches in each group, even the games between third and fourth-ranked teams can decisively affect which teams advance or what team finishes first. The first place finishers generally have a better seed in the second round than do the second place finishers. In fact, one of the things I will be watching closely is which team wins and finishes second in group B. The second place group B team will likely play Brazil first in the next round. Because group B has three well-regarded teams, to me that means Brazil may well have the hardest match to begin that round. Altho we will be playing in Brazil, which will offer some advantage to the home team, Brazil has a reputation of coming into the Cup ranked near the top and not meeting expectations. They almost definitely will be facing Spain, Chile or the Netherlands in that match. If they win that one, they will possibly play Columbia next, but might end up with Uruguay, Italy or England instead, all also tough teams. Then, assuming they are still winning, they will likely face Germany in the semis and Argentina in the finals. That would be a very difficult string of matches, even for Brazil. Thats all for today. Feedback appreciated.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 21:35:58 +0000
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