WxChallenge Update Butte, Montana Week 1 As the second city of the Wx Challenge (part of my Penn State Forecasting Certificate Program Capstone) got underway, record warmth out West and an frontal system made forecasting difficult. Nonetheless, after forecasting high, low, wind speed, and precipitation for Butte, Montana, Week 1, I remain second in my class at a mere 0.14 of a point behind the lead. I am at 298th overall out of 1,625 human forecasters. Computer models performed quite poorly this week. Day 2 (Wednesday-Thursday) proved to be the worst for everyone as computer model guidance was off by almost 10 degrees on the days high as well as the peak windspeed (an approaching front as well the rugged terrain around Butte played havoc with wind forecasts). Day 3 (Thursday-Friday) was better as I recovered some points as model guidance settled down and my projects were closer to those that actually verfiied. My predictions Day 4 (Friday-Saturday) were better on everything except the low temperatures where computer model guidance proved unreliable with the low dropping more than almost anyone anticipated--MOS (Model Output Statistics) called for upper-20s, but 21 proved to be the actual verified low. So, after a couple of days off for the weekend, we start Butte, Week 2 Monday evening. Ill update again next weekend.
Posted on: Sun, 19 Oct 2014 17:23:25 +0000
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