YEMEN: What next……. By: Khalid T. Abdullah This article attempts to provide an academic insight and an educated outlook at the future steps post the Yemen National Dialogue Conference. For the purpose of drafting this document we have reviewed and evaluated the documents published by the Yemen National Dialogue Conference (“NDC”) as well as relevant literature published by official and international academic institutions. PREFACE: After over ten months of dialogue between various political factions in Yemen, the outcome of the NDC was declared a success by the international community. On the 22nd of February, the two year transition government and presidential rule crossed over from one phase “the transitional rule phase” over to the “implementation phase”. The “regulatory framework drafting phase” will be an 18 – 24 month phase through which specialised committees will be formed to work on the drafting of the new constitution of Yemen, establishing the rules governing the six new federal provinces, re-drafting the election law, and the drafting and enacting of various other relevant regulations in accordance with the outcome and recommendations of the nine working committees of the NDC. The “regulatory framework drafting phase” will only come to an end after successful presidential and parliamentary elections, which will transition Yemen to the next phase, a 5 or 6 year “joint“ parliamentary rule which 50% of its representatives will be from the south of Yemen and the other 50% will be from the north of Yemen. For ease of reference I will be referring to the following terminologies throughout the Article: • Phase one : the Yemen National Dialogue Conference. • Phase two: The “Regulatory Framework Drafting Phase” (18 – 24 month) • Phase three: Joint rule between North Yemen and South Yemen whereby 50% of all leadership positions in the country will be from the south of Yemen and the other 50% from the north of Yemen. ( 5 – 6 years). The true outcome of the Yemen NDC On the 23rd of December 2013, at 8:00 PM in Sana’a, at the Presidential offices, the most important document of the NDC was executed. The guarantees document of implementation of the Yemen NDC (“ the Guarantees Agreement ”) was signed by the leadership of the political and social participating components at the NDC, and set in place the manner in which the future of the new Yemen will be forged. The signatories, representing all factions in the Yemen NDC, through the document executed, in effect agreed to rewind Yemen’s political clock back to 1989, to re-structure the unification agreement entered in to between the Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) and the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) in 1990. The Guarantees Agreement is a “Re-Unification” agreement setting out the steps that will be implemented over the next 7-8 years to strengthen the unification of the country, through the following steps: a) The drafting of the Constitution and a national referendum: I. Formation of the constitution drafting committee: The President of the Republic was empowered by the NDC to form a committee for the drafting of the constitution. The special committee will draft the new constitution in accordance with the conclusions of the NDC and recommendations of the nine working committees. II. Construction of a new electoral register: With the assistance of the (the United Nations Development Program) (UNDP), and the financing of the friends of Yemen, the Supreme Committee for Elections have been working on constructing an entirely new electoral register system. The Supreme Committee successfully acquired the hardware needed to register voters, The Committee further ordered the required “magic-ink” to mark individual voters, to prevent them from voting in two poling stations on the same day. The work of the Committee has been restricted by the failure of the NDC, the government and the presidency, to resolve the issues raised by the people of the Southern Governorates, as well as failure to implement the 31 southern demand points recommended to be implemented by the NDC. With the Southern issues remaining to be pending, it is unlikely that citizens of the South will participate in any form of registration, referendum or election process. III. The national referendum for approval of the new constitution: Once the drafting committee finalizes its tasks for drafting the new constitution, and the Supreme Committee for Elections completes its work on the restructuring of the new electoral register, a national referendum will take place to approve the new constitution. The current estimated timing for this work to be completed, and for the national referendum is 6 months, before the beginning of the month of Ramadan. b) The drafting of the laws for the federal states and provinces: I. The issuance of the required legislation and preparing the country’s transition to a federal state. Special drafting committees will be set up, in the same manner as NDC working committees were established and organised, to start the drafting and amendment of the required legislation for the new Yemen. The laws that will be drafted will include the following: - A new law setting up and regulating the new federal regions. - Required legislation for the various regions. - The local administration provinces laws. - The laws of the territories and local units. - Civil Service Law to regulate the work of the state. - Issuance of the Judiciary Law and the formation of the Constitutional Court. The new Federal States have been approved by the President of the Republic and are as follows: II. Orginisation and drafting of the laws and regulations for the central Government: Simultaneous with the work carried out on the drafting of the laws and regulations for the federal states, the Government will work on drafting the required laws and regulations for the Central Government. The Government will issue the required legal and management directives to all branches of the government sector for the implementation of the recommendations of the NDC related to the standards of good governance, the rule of law, human rights and the requirement for reform. The first batch of Ministries and Government entities that will be targeted for such reform will be the Civil Service, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, the Central Agency for Control and Audit, the media, the offices of the Public Prosecutor, the offices of the President of the Republic, and the offices of the Prime Minister. This period will also see work on reformed legislation related to the anti corruption, laws for formation of political parties, laws for formation of civil society organizations, the financial law and financial disclosure laws. Specialised committees will also be working on the performance of governmental functions, and the functions of local administration in accordance with the principles of good governance, rule of law, human rights, transparency and accountability. At the same time, work will continue on implementation of the restructuring of the armed forces, rehabilitation and training of personnel in the armed forces and the restructuring and rehabilitation of the security agencies. At all times the government and presidency will work on the prevention of the occurrence of any armed confrontation in the country, or any acts aimed at de-railing the implementation of the recommendations of the NDC. c) Legislative restructuring: I. Expansion of the Shura Council: It has been agreed that the Shura Council will be expanded to ensure the representation of all components, political and social factions that participated in the NDC is the same representation percentages as in the NDC, including youth, women and civil society. It was further agreed that 50% of the constituents of the newly structured Shura Council will be from the South of Yemen. II. Expansion of the Conciliation Commission: It has been agreed that the Conciliation Commission formed through the NDC will continue its work, and will function as a national authority, to insure that all the components of political and social factions that participated in the NDC are continuing to be involved during the Implementation Phase. It was further agreed that every component should have at least two seats on the said Commission, and to ensure 50% participation of the South, at least 30% for women, and 20% for the Youth. The main role of the Commission will be the supervision and follow-up of the implementation of the outcome and recommendations of the NDC, the supervision of the constitution drafting committee, and to approve the new constitution before its submittal for ratification in accordance with the constitutional procedures. d) Management of the Economy: It has been agreed that special committees will work with the various donor countries and agencies, international and national organisations, to jump start the economy and to generating economic activity and wealth to the lower sectors of society thus guaranteeing a minimum standard of living. Regrettably, the newly formed government currently managing the country has no experience or direction on how to manage Yemen forward economically. The short, medium and long term plan have been vague, and there has been no response from the donor aid countries and agencies to the requests made by the Government. With a wish-list of projects totaling US $ 14 Billion, the new government of Yemen will be attending the upcoming Riyadh meetings with the expectations that the GCC will grant Yemen the cash it requires to manage Yemen through the upcoming phases. The Government does not have a plan B or C, and are not thinking beyond this step. The GCC are expected to grant Yemen funds that will be linked to infrastructure projects, however, given that the implementation of a medium term infrastructure project is at least 14 month, Yemen will not see the effects of such funding for a long time to come. Smaller cash injections are expected to be made by the GCC to compensate those effected by the recent political confrontations, and fuel shortages. Any grants provided are expected to be made on conditional basis, with the aim of influencing what the new Yemen will look like, and the outlook of the new legislation. The smaller cash injections will be used up by the higher tiers of the State, and will not trickle down to the sectors of society that are in need of recovery. e) National Elections: I. Presidential Elections: Once the Constitution and the Election Laws have been finalised and enacted, a new Media Campaign will start to prepare the masses for the First Fair and Transparent Elections in the new Yemen. The elections are expected to see a large number of independent candidates along side representatives from the major political parties. II. Parliamentary Elections: Yemen will also go through new Parliamentary Elections, and here again election fever will continue to run where representatives from every major party, tribe, faction, district and village will compete for seats. The newly formed parliament will be made up of 50% from the Southern Governorates, 30% minimum representation for women, and 20% from the youth. The term of this first re-unification parliament will be either 5 or 6 yeas, after which more open unrestricted elections will possibly be allowed to take place. III. Formation of a New Government: Immediately after election of the new Parliament, the Government will submit its resignation and a new Prime Minister will be nominated. Nomination or appointment of the new Prime Minister will depend upon the mechanisms enacted in the new constitution. Appointment may be by the party with the majority of seats secured, or majority of votes or any other approved system. The most likely scenario will be that the first appointment will also be a coalition type appointment whereby all parties and factions will agree on an individual appointment to manage Yemen through yet another form of transition period a post election transition period. Until such a new government is formed, in the next 24 or so months, the government will oversee continuous new appointments and mini re-shuffles, to insure that the new government will be qualified to manage the implementation of the outcome and recommendations of the NDC, and to manage Yemen through the forthcoming 24 months. This transition government for the Implementary Phase will be made up of 50% from the Southern Governorates, 30% minimum representation for women and 20% for the youth. f) Impediments in the path of Yemens restructuring: a) President Saleh. President Saleh continues to enjoy not less than 50% of the power of rule through his party the General Peoples Congress. Saleh continues to attempt to rule and exert influence through the party and loyal subjects in the military. b) A dysfunctional Parliament. Again, given that the General Peoples Congress enjoy 70%+ majority of the current parliament, Saleh in theory is still in control of what goes in and what gets approved by parliament. Parliament will continue to be used as a tool to pressure the activities of the new transitional Government through this Implementation Phase, and parliament will continue to attempt to issue votes of no confidence, and to attempt to de-rail the Prime Minister and the Government. c) Corruption Corruption remains the main obstacle that hinders performance of the Government and the Civil Service. Until corruption is eradicated, the reconstruction process and the implementation of the outcome and recommendations of the NDC will be slow to materialise. NOTE: THIS ARTICLE REPRESENTS THE PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE WRITER AND IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON AS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF THE FACTS.
Posted on: Tue, 18 Mar 2014 21:13:57 +0000
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