Yesterday, Representative Wilson made the following statement: We believe, at a conservative level, that $1.8B per year of economic activity will come out of the creation of that site as a development. 30,000 jobs for Utahns with over $100M a year of tax revenue. That statement and those figures seem to be the single point that the PRC is using as the reason to relocate the prison. Because this appears to be their single driving factor, I decided to do a little research. In the report that MGT delivered to the PRC almost one year ago, they state in Chapter 14 that the total Economic Output will be $1.8B. That data is derived from Chapter 12 which outlines the redevelopment scenario for the site. In Chapter 12, MGT makes some assumptions of the development types that could be on the Draper site (retail, commercial, light industrial, housing, etc.). While this all sounds good, there are also a few figures that are outlined in the report that give me pause. For one, the types of development that MIGHT be located at that site are, as I stated, assumptions. There is no factual data that states how that site would be redeveloped. The report also states that it would take approximately 3 years to construct the new facility (I am assuming that is a best-case scenario). Once construction os completed, then demolition can begin on the current facility. The report does not state how long it will take to demolish and clean up the current facility so that redevelopment can begin. The most glaring number that I found in the report is that it could take 9-11 years for a complete redevelopment of the Draper site. That means that the $1.8B number that is being thrown around by the PRC wont be fully recognized for at least 12 years (based on new construction and completed redevelopment) or up to 14 years. Armed with this information, it seems completely irresponsible of the PRC to consider taking on a $1.06B-$1.15B relocation cost in order to gain Economic Output for a site that is not guaranteed. Especially when the cost of renovation is an estimated $783M. Lastly, what I would like to know is what is the estimated economic potential of the three proposed sites on their list? I believe that there is more potential for economic development at the EM site than the other two, but in order to observe the Golden Rule, I would like to know what their potential is as well.
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 18:30:24 +0000
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