Yup. Welcome to the future. Its happening already, and the genie isnt going back into the bottle. Ive been thinking about this a lot, as has Blair and others, because its been kind of a heavy topic in the tech-y zeitgeist of San Francisco. Feel free to skip if you dont want to read my thoughts on the matter. As the video points out, this is going to remove entire fields of jobs. Truckers, taxis, and the like are going to go the way of travel consultants, despite their unions. Unemployment is going to go up and stay up. There simply wont be work for a certain degree of un- and low-skilled workers (and eventually beyond). For a while, creative work is going to be the only thing that cant be replaced, and even that probably wont last forever (see: article-writing robots, which could conceivably be transitioned into writing dialogue for Radiant Story quests). Sidenote: we may well enter a weird world where we joke about trade-school students having no job prospects and art majors as having job security. But it might happen in our lifetimes. But this doesnt have to be a bad thing! In a lot of cases, automation is fantastic, both for productivity and for day-to-day experience! While Im always going to prefer to chat with the human bartender I know, there are lots of times where Ill just want to deal with a machine and get on with my day (see: taxis). And a world where most lawyers are automated could be a much better world. The problem is that we still live in a society that expects you to work if you want to live. Even now, theres an attitude that someone who cant get a job must not be trying hard enough, and that the threat of unemployment running out is the only way to get them to really try. But obviously that wont be the case for people who find that there arent any jobs to be had. And most health insurance in this country is still tied to being employed, or at least having a steady income. We need to decouple working from surviving. The best solution Ive heard would be a Universal Basic Income (and healthcare) for all citizens, replacing food stamps, unemployment, minimum wages, and the like with an unconditional, low-but-livable wage for everyone, paid for by taxes on the increased productivity created by the automation. People could still get paid for other work, and the owners of the automated capital will still end up with higher total incomes than the general population, but without the diminishing demand that comes from mass poverty and a shrinking middle class (like todays wealth inequality). Paying for such an UBI might also require a year or two of some form of civil service, either in their choice of the armed forces, infrastructure construction, community service, or other public work, in whatever capacity hasnt yet been automated. Other nations have compulsory civil service, and it can work well, both to keep the nation vibrant and to instill a sense of community in its citizens. Most importantly, decoupling employment from survival would free people up to pursue the creative and entrepreneurial risks that they cant take at the present because theyre tied to jobs they only perform in order to stay alive. Work is one way to find meaning in life, and many people will create work to do, even if they dont need to do so to live. Automation could free up hundreds of thousands of people from jobs they hate and give them a chance to do what theyve always wanted to do, but never thought they could afford to try. Automation can be a tremendous opportunity for us all... if were willing to make the big changes that have to be made. Otherwise, its going to be a damned nightmare for all but a tiny fraction of society.
Posted on: Wed, 13 Aug 2014 20:27:26 +0000
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