birchgold/economy/wishful-thinking-gdp So here’s the narrative we received from the BEA: At first they said we grew just a tiny bit. Then they said we actually shrank a little bit. Now the truth comes out that we shrank quite a lot. The BEA blames both overestimated personal consumption and an underestimated decline in exports. There were also strong pullbacks in private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment. There hasn’t been much time to react to these new numbers. Jobless numbers last week showed continued, but very soft improvement. Will that reverse? Once companies let these new numbers sink in, will the increases in capital equipment orders we’ve been hearing about stall? Will the layoffs begin anew? And, as economist John Williams expects, will the second quarter’s GDP numbers also be in the red? Remember, two consecutive quarters with negative GDP equals an official recession. What will happen to confidence then? Our “recovery” has been so much statistical hocus-pocus, what will ANOTHER recession to do us?
Posted on: Sun, 29 Jun 2014 23:42:53 +0000
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