comunicato stampa GFK CORPORATE German consumer climate improves as year draws to a close Findings of the GfK Consumer Climate study for Germany for November 2014 Nuremberg, November 27, 2014 – Overall, German consumers mood continued to stabilize in November. The consumer climate is improving as the year draws to a close. Following a value of 8.5 points in November, the overall indicator is forecasting 8.7 points for December. Income expectations and willingness to buy increased for the second consecutive month, while a marginal decline was recorded for economic expectations.. There is greater uncertainty among German consumers as a result of the persistently tense geopolitical situation coupled with the economic slowdown in the eurozone. This is reflected in the deteriorating economic outlook. However, consumers income outlook and spending propensity have not yet been affected by these developments. Both indicators once again recorded a second consecutive improvement on their already extremely high level. Economic expectations: continue to deteriorate Counter to the hope still held last month, the economic outlook of German consumers did not continue to stabilize. Economic expectations dropped by 2.7 points and now stand at 1.6 points. The indicator is therefore still slightly above the long-term average of zero points. A lower value was last recorded in June 2013, when it fell to 1.1 points. The German economy is now also beginning to suffer the effects of the various international crises in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine as well as the Ebola epidemic in West Africa and, linked to this, the economic weakness in the eurozone. Consequently, a significant downward correction of the growth forecast for German gross domestic product (GDP) was required in recent weeks. In line with the German government, the German Council of Economic Experts also lowered its prediction for economic growth this year to just 1.2 percent in its recently published Annual Economic Report. Just over a year ago, the German Council of Economic Experts had still been forecasting 1.9 percent. The German economy is currently stagnating and economic experts are only anticipating it to recover over the course of next year. Accordingly, the estimate for next years growth prospects is also very conservative, at 1.0 percent. In contrast, German companies feel the economic downturn has come to an end. Following six consecutive declines, the Ifo Business Climate index improved again in November. Income expectations: further increase on already high level With regard to their own income outlook, Germans were not affected by the sluggish economy in November. Income expectations increased slightly for the second consecutive time and climbed to 48.5 points, which is an increase of 1.6 points in comparison with the previous month. At first, this development might seem surprising, but it is less unexpected considering the situation on the labor market. Month after month, employment is rising to new record highs. Income from wages and salaries is rising in the wake of extremely good employment levels. Pensioners have also seen an improvement in their state pension. As a result of the extremely low rate of inflation, salary and pension increases are making a real difference to Germans financial situation. Willingness to buy: in line with income expectations In November, the development of willingness to buy virtually matched that of income expectations. Following an increase of 1.9 points, the indicator value increased to 47.5 points and therefore consolidated its already good position. The reasons for the good spending mood remain the same as in previous months. The stable labor market continues to boost planning security for making major purchases. Germans are no longer especially concerned that they will lose their jobs. A further factor to consider is the falling price of crude oil, which is also having a positive knock-on effect on energy prices. Fuel is cheaper now than it has been for four years. The price of heating oil is also on a downward trend. This eases the burden on private household budgets, meaning that a greater share of income is available for other uses, which is likely to provide an additional boost to the consumer mood. Consumer climate: upward trend continues Following a value of 8.5 points in November, the forecast for the overall indicator has increased to 8.7 points for December. The consumer climate is therefore continuing its moderate upward trend. The consumer climate continues to be a pillar of strength for the generally sluggish economic climate. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the fact that GDP was able to at least record a slight increase of 0.1 percent in the third quarter is attributable to the considerable increase in private household spending. German consumers therefore prevented their economy from sliding back into recession. For consumption to remain a key pillar of the economy, it is essential that the situation in international crisis regions does not escalate further. This also means that the West African countries which are affected by Ebola and the international community must get a grip on the crisis. The spread of Ebola to Europe would represent a considerable risk for positive economic development in Germany in future.
Posted on: Thu, 27 Nov 2014 13:12:18 +0000
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