ding presidential hopefuls. Verdict: Battleground BAYELSA Though things are not at ease with the PDP in Bayelsa State, it is almost taken that President Jonathan will carry his home state. Even if every other states turn against the President, his kinsmen are certain to stick with him, come rain or sunshine. Governor Seriake Dickson is reportedly uncomfortable with Jonathan who believed to be indisposed to the governor’s reelection bid in 2016. The governor has flushed out elements with ties to Jonathan and his wife from his cabinet. He has also moved against activities of the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN), the umbrella organisation for Jonathan’s reelection campaign in the state. Relations between the governor and presidency are at the lowest ebb but they are not expected to have any direct bearing on the voting pattern next month. The voters will certainly pick the son of the soil, Jonathan, over every other person, performance or non-performance. The only snag is that the President’s home state only boasts 610,373 voters. Even if all of them get to vote, they are not likely to have significant impact in the general direction of the poll. Verdict: Jonathan DELTA Ethnic and religious factors could work against any Buhari upset in the state but they also threaten to trim the margin of any PDP victory here. Jonathan will have to stave off mounting opposition against him in the state. The Itsekiri, for exemaple, are angry that the inauguration of the Export Processing Zone (EPZ) was unceremoniously abandoned by the president under pressure from former militant leader, Chief Government ‘Tompolo’ Ekpemupolo. There is also the shoddy handling of the governorship primaries. Even though many believe Senator Ifeanyi Okowo won fair and square, his emergence came at the expense of entrenched interests in the state. The Urhobos are aggrieved the governorship slot was not ceded to them, but a delegation of the Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU) pledged support for Jonathan during a recent Aso Villa visit. Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan is also said not to be a happy man. He was forced to drop his senatorial ambition for the return of James Manger, an Ijaw man, said to have the backing of Jonathan. His preferred successor, John Obuh, also lost the governorship slot, coming a distant third. Like Uduaghan, many PDP members in Delta are disgruntled. But many will still root for Jonathan but may play the spoilers in the gubernatorial poll. Buhari would benefit from some protest votes to secure the 25% he needs. Verdict: Jonathan EDO With the APC firmly in control of the state, analysts are predicting its presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, might record an upset in Edo. This optimism is not out of place. Governor Adams Oshiomhole has proven to be in control of the state apparatus. His infrastructural development of the state has won many hearts. The PDP in Edo is near comatose. It operates only in the fringes. With the APC’s structure waxing stronger in the state, it is expected that Buhari will pull many votes. A 60-40 percent votes split in the presidential poll in favour of APC is predicted. Verdict: Buhari OSUN In Osun State, which is firmly under the control of the APC, Jonathan may find it difficult to get listening ears during his campaigns. Consequently, his performance at the polls will be abysmal, pundits say. The mammoth crowd that thronged the Osogbo City Sports Stadium to receive Buhari last week when he visited the state in continuation of his presidential campaign, according to observers, is a sign of things to come. This will be no surprise in Osun where, in spite of his good showing in the region in 2011, the President still lost to the ACN by a wide margin. With Governor Rauf Aregbesola still in charge and the PDP declining in status by the day, Buhari is positioned to win massively in the state. Aregbesola’s convincing victory during last year’s governorship election and the rancor that saw PDP losing two former Governors of the state, Isiaka Adeleke and Olagunsoye Oyinlola to the APC in quick succession will also work against Jonathan in the state. The defection of Adeleke significantly assisted Aregbesola to garner sufficient votes in Osun West Senatorial District during the last August 9 governorship election in the state, as the areas were the strongholds of the PDP. Most likely, it will be an 80-20 situation in favor of Buhari in the February election in this state. Verdict: Buhari EKITI The likely outcome of the election in Ekiti is too close to call. This is because of the current political scenario in the state. During the June 21, 2014 governorship election held in Ekiti State, the APC failed to retain the state, which it lost to PDP. The surprise emergence of Ayodele Fayose as governor of the state is no doubt a boost for President Jonathan and the PDP in the February election. If the preference of Fayose, an unrepentant Jonathan supporter is to count, then PDP will carry the day. However, the APC is not likely to go down without a good fight in the state given the fact that it is in the majority in the House of Assembly as well as National Assembly members in the state. The fact that it was in charge of the state for four years barely months back, is also an advantage for Buhari. In addition, the reconciliation of Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, gubernatorial candidate of the Labour Party in the last election with the APC leadership will give PDP more troubles. Coupled with this is the belief in some quarters that the people of Ekiti will also vote for the progressive party alongside their counterparts in other South West states. Verdict: Too close to call ONDO Here, the political drama that saw the massive decamping of major political actors from one political party to the other, which started in 2014 and continued into the New Year, will have serious impact on how the people will vote in February. With the now ruling PDP torn into shreds and the Labour Party no longer in Governor Olusegn Mimiko’s kitty, coupled with a fast growing opposition APC in the same state, pundits say though Jonathan may still do well in the state considering its proximity to his native Bayelsa State and the large presence of Ijaw speaking communities in the oil producing area of the state, he will definitely record a lesser percentage of votes this time. But with Buhari running on the platform of the APC this time and the general feeling of marginalisation among the Yorubas, his performance in the mainland and other parts of the state are too early to predict. The situation in Ondo is a close race with an unpredictable outcome. Verdict: Too close to call LAGOS President Goodluck Jonathan’s decision to kick-off his campaign in Lagos, underlines the pivotal role the electorate in this state would play in determining who wins this election. The most popular position is that Buhari will outshine Jonathan at the polls in Lagos State. The political base of APC’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the state will naturally support its ruling party. This is because the APC image has continued to soar by the day. Campaigns by the party so far across the state have witnessed huge crowds. Although the PDP has tried to paper over the cracks that attended its governorship primaries, Buhari is in pole position to get the mandate of the people of the state on February 14 with a 75-25 vote split scenario. Verdict: Buhari OGUN An array of PDP chieftains, including controversial Buruji Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo and Doyin Okupe, amongst others, are working round the clock to deliver the votes in the state to Goodluck Jonathan. They are no doubt determined to beat the APC to second place in the February election. But matching the popularity and the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun is a huge task for Jonathan’s men. Consequently, Buhari’s visit to Abeokuta few days back was a huge success that saw the people of the Gateway State trooping out to see him. An earlier visit by Jonathan also saw a mammoth crowd but the frenzy that greeted the APC rally gave indication of where the votes may go. Amosun’s track record of achievements, especially in the area of urban renewal, which has seen the massive construction of roads and bridges across the state will be an added advantage for his party. Also, the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other aggrieved PDP leaders may work against Jonathan in the state unless something urgent is done. The indisputable political place of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and his unhidden opposition to Jonathan’s aspiration will also work in favor of Buhari and his party. Expect a 70-30 percent vote split on February 14. Verdict: Buhari OYO In Oyo state, the tattered state of Jonathan’s party may aid Buhari’s victory. He may likely do far better than Jonathan in the state given the fact that APC is in control of the state. Pundits also say apart from being an APC controlled state, Oyo is a core Yoruba state where the feeling of marginalisation is deep rooted. Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide, Jonathan’s Minister from the state, and Senator Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are of the opinion that the people will vote for the Presdient in February, indications that this may not be so are numerous. The daily defection of party leaders from the PDP, which started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala remains an issue. With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, Jonathan may find it difficult getting votes in Oyo. Verdict: Buhari ABIA Since 1999, Abia has remained a PDP stronghold, notwithstanding the brief period when the former governor, Orji Uzor Kalu, in protest against alleged marginalization, floated a rival party, PPA, t
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 07:28:32 +0000
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