going back, way back ....... statistics review , ... never my favorite. This tidbit should help the poker players and risk takers Less apparent to the neophyte is the operation of probability in the testing of hypotheses. Some of them say with derision, “You can prove anything with statistics.” The truth is, you can prove nothing; you can at most compute the probability of something happening and let the researcher draw his own conclusions. To illustrate with a very simple example, in the game of craps the probability of the shooter winning (making a pass) is approximately 0.493- assuming, of course, a perfectly balanced set of dice and an honest shooter. Suppose now that you run up against a shooter who picks up the dice and immediately makes seven passes in a row! It can be shown that if the probability of making a single pass is really 0.493, then the probability of seven or more consecutive passes is about 0.007 (or 1 in 141). This is where statistics ends; you draw your own conclusions about the shooter. If you conclude that the shooter is pulling a fast one, then in statistical terms you are rejecting the hypothesis that the probability of the shooter making a single pass is 0.493. ya hear that , Keith Duke !!!
Posted on: Fri, 21 Feb 2014 18:42:38 +0000
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