heady moment. "After decades of research Kahneman concludes that, “in general, you should not take assertive and confident people at their own evaluation unless you have independent reason to believe that they know what they are talking about. Unfortunately, this advice is difficult to follow: overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.” And Kahneman wirily notes that we are all prone to this way of thinking and hence even after reading his paper he predicts "The confidence you will experience in your future judgments will not be diminished by what you just read, even if you believe every word.""
Posted on: Sat, 15 Jun 2013 13:29:09 +0000
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