i guess hoops is better than stamp collecting. Im not sure. I was making notes for a couple weeks on the draft. And then....realized the NBA playoffs are not that far off................so.....there is madness, I realize, to a fb post this long on hoop. But my official two round top fifty prospects as of now................ Updated, early draft talk. This is the supposed to be the BIG draft and got wildly overhyped. Now, its certainly a far better draft than last year, which wasnt at all deep. I think its better , probably, than 2012 too. But it is deep in the second round, like 2012. But there are no franchise guys.. The top five or six got hugely overhyped. There are still very good players available at the top, but not, with one exception, a franchise guy. Dante Exum is the one possible franchise player. But he plays in australia, and nobody has seen enough of him against top competition. He was a standout almost two years ago in the Nike Hoop Summit, but since then, its hard to evaluate him. That said, from what I can see, hes a freak athlete, and just has a natural feel for the game. The game comes to him. He is fluid and has really good handle. Not a pure point guard, but a combo guard probably. Has great upside on defense too. Id take him #1 without any hesitation at all. Development is interesting. Indiana developed paul george. And take Kawhi Leonard. Couldnt shoot in college., but Spurs picked him and brought him along slowly. Now hes a star at both ends. You wonder if george had been picked by washington and Vesely by Indiana or san antonio, what the results would have been. Paul George didnt do that much at Fresno State, but both Lex and I certainly spotted him. He did go first round but it took him a couple seasons. Good organizations develop guys, bad ones ruin guys. If we re-drafted the 2013 draft today there are 3 guys who seem at the top. Victor Olidipo, Steven Adams, and Alex Len. And probably a fourth (and I give myself a high five on this one, in a big way_) and thats 2nd round pick Ray McCallum Jr. McCallum might end up, in fact almost assuredly ends up, the best point guard in this class. I had him second behind Dennis Schroder, now at atlanta. Schroder has struggled, but also shown flashes. In three years I still think these two are going to be best. MCW is certainly impressive in some ways, but hes shooting 26% on his 3s and only 32% overall. Thats terrible. Trey Burke isnt much better at 36% over all. Burke isnt athletic enough, I keep saying it. But its early. Len however really has huge upside. His defensive presence is already impacting possessions. Adams too, who i loved, and was at the top of my list, is going to be good but it takes big men a couple years. Id say i was wrong about Tim Hardaway......hes arguably in the race for ROY. But i was right about Mason Plumlee, who looks to be a steal for the Nets. As for the rest....Ben McLemore should be ok, but hes clearly not a star and Shabaaz has recently had a couple good games. Hes one dimensional, but he has a role. As a back up three. His defense remains pretty bad. OK.....a few observations. Houston beat Portland in OT because Dwight apparently NEVER fouls. he should have fouled out in the 3rd quarter, but the league bias for glamour players is again obvious. The story of Detroit this year............well, Josh Smith is disgraceful, really. Even Zach lowe finally came out and said, the guy should be benched. The Pistons are (next to the lakers) about the worst defense in the league now and that shouldnt be the case. But count among the overrated young players in the league, Andre Drummond. My big fear about Dre was hoop IQ. He is STILL utterly lost out there. Where is the coaching?? Toronto.......man, dwight casey could be in the running for COY. This team is for real now. And Demar DeRozan is really having an sensational clutch season. Not to mention Kyle Lowery with a triple double the other night. Six foot Kyle got 12 rebounds. The two most underrated point guards in the league are Lowery and Dragic...both given away by houston, interestingly. neither wanted to play for McHale. Playoffs.....the east. Well, Indiana is in a big slump. Happened right after they signed Bynum and traded for Evan Turner. First case = karma. Second case, Turner isnt very good. Why did Bird make these moves?? Can indiana rebound? Sure....but right now Vogels narrow offensive system is hurting them. And the two teams scaring people are chicago and toronto. Brooklyn has been winning too, and you cant totally dismiss them, but Deron is broken, and KG and Pierce shells of their former selves. The team is winning with shaun livingston and Plumlee and especially Kirilenko. Oh, and my man Andray Blatche. Its an interesting team and props to jason kidd who seems to have figured it out. I was premature about JK. The Nets have big guards....Livingston, Joe Johnson, and Deron.....they back people down and kick out. Teams without size on the perimeter have trouble with the Nets. Playing Pierce at the four part of the time has been effective, up to a point. But can this strategy work in a 7 game series?? I have doubts. But brooklyn was won 20 of 29 heading into tonight. Pierce has even had a couple good games, but the main reason is Blatche and Plumlee. Mason Plumlee was never liked by sports gurus, and i dont know why. But hes huge, firstly. A 7 ft guy playing the four. And hes chippy. Hes got enough mean to his game and with increased confidence coming from increased minutes, Plumlee is turning out to be the steal of the draft. I always like him and had him as a lottery pick, but even I didnt think hed be this good. And Blatche has been sensational. He seems to have figured out how to play, and those endless mistakes that plagued him for years in Washington are a thing of the past. The Nets though still depend on Deron and thats a problem. The rest means only Miami but they look very vulnerable right now. Who do you take tomorrow in a 7 game series: Miami or the Bulls? The sleeper is washington.....Wall and Beal.....best backcourt in the league right now. The Wizards are playing really really well...........but how far do they go post season?? How far with randy whitman as coach? In the west........ Spurs look like their on theyre way to another finals. OKC has a westbrook problem. Look,. hes a great player, but he lost the game the other day to the Lakers.....even if he also spurred the comeback. He makes too many boneheaded plays in crucial situations. They won more when KD ran the offense. Now sefalosha is out....this on top of Kendrick perkins being lost for the season. Perkins got a lot of grief from people but they miss him. What he did was provide gravitus on defense. Just being out there scowling at people. OKC has too much talent for teams with weak defense. Thats when Brooks just rolls the ball out and lets russ and KD make it up. They can destroy those teams. But they struggle, often, against teams with really aggressive defense. Or just physical defenses. They also are just inconsistent. Some nights they look unbeatable and the next night seems utterly lost. Steven Adams though is improving...and maybe by post season they wont miss Perkins. I dont think they match up well against the Spurs, or Golden State, and maybe not the Clips. But against houston and Portland, they should cruise. WHo is #3? Assuming OKC is number two and Im not sure they are. Well, Clippers are playing way better than I thought. Gotta give it up to Blake Griffin. I mean he is hands down the best four in the league right now. He is carrying this team. But clips have defensive problems, still. And honestly, Jamal Crawfords lack of D really hurts at times. Jordan is ok, up to a point, but the clips look vulnerable to me. Im not on that bandwagon yet, but....while I think Doc is overrated, he is sure an improvement over Del Negro. And the way Blake is playing, I guess it might be time to take LA more seriously.....maybe. Next is Golden State. They are putting it together finally, and they have two *stoppers* in Iguadola and Bogut. Curry is curry.....and you live with his lack of defense, but at least he tries. Klay Thompson is klay thompson. Meaning, he gives you perimeter offense and little more. harrison barnes sucks. But...David lee remains a terrific face up scorer, and with Iguadola and bogut the warriors can live with weak perimeter defense. Can GS beat the Clips? Thats a tough one. The next couple of weeks will tell a lot. Then you have Houston. Honestly, I dont consider the rockets a contender. Not post season. The officials might change that, but they just dont play D. Portland is an enigma........they have a mediocre defense (statistically worse than mediocre) but they can score. Lillard and Aldridge and Batum and wes mathews.......thats a pretty nice starting unit with Lopez in the middle....but the bench remains pretty bad, but Ive not given up on the blazers at all. I think a lot of critics have written off the Blazers and thats a mistake...maybe. They hit a slump, but this is a team that can really go on runs, and you cant discount Lillard. I mean Lillard is a guy can take over games so beware of Portland. But the Blazers lack team defense, especially on cuts and back door plays where they get beat over and over and over. Aldridge just wont give the effort on D that is needed from a four on those possessions. Unless they figure out crunch time defense....and how to create offense when those jumpers arent falling, then yeah, Portland IS toast..The rest ....Phoenix, Memphis and Dallas........who gets in? Odds figure to leave Suns out of it, but if Bledsoe comes back, and it looks like he will, then the Suns are going to make it, and in part because they have an easier schedule than Dallas. Dallas is the team nobody wants to play....mostly because in post season Carlyse is a genius. Dirk is playing out of his mind, and Dallas is a team that might frighten the top three. But dallas lacks a stopper. Their defense lets them down time and again in the 4th quarter. But the Suns are just a miracle. Hornacek has created a serious playoff level team out of scraps. Big shout out to PJ Tucker, too, the lunch pail guy nobody notices (and the only guy who makes one handed rebounds!). Memphis is the favorite of the stat geek crowd, but Im not feeling it. Maybe Im wrong and they have played better lately. With memphis, its a question of creating enough offense. Conley isnt a consistent scorer, even if a great floor reader and good defender, and Zbo is showing some age. But Gasol is great, and gives them extra interior D while scoring just enough. But the bench is bad....save for Nick Calenthes (yes, high five to myself on that one). The TWolves are out of it. ....and Adelman is probably gone. He hates Rubio and Rubio hates him, and the truth is, Adelman hasnt adjusted to the roster he has, and its just a group that cant play his system....and so, do they trade Love? to the Lakers?? To Boston??? Id say the Spurs are the team to beat. I dont believe OKC can do it, and that leaves Clips and Portland, and Golden State. If all are healthy, its hard to seperate them, honestly. Im leaning toward the Warriors as the surprise post season team....again! Odd notes.....two guys I LOVE have gotten call ups from D league. Kevin Murphy to philly. Utah drafted Murphy but of course didnt use him. Murphy is a small school scorer, very tough. Hell stick around. And tony mitchell (the one from Bama)........who i have always believed would stick in the league. He does a bit of everything, but is a nice defender at the three. Watch for CJ Leslie.........WHY someone hasnt called up Leslie is beyond me. Simply beyond me. Now D league is sort of like pick up games. Not much practice, and its about showcasing........but..........leslie was once seen as a lottery pick. But his lack of a real position created problems. He lacked handle, and didnt shoot that well....but hes an elite athlete who is an insane defensive guy....shot blocker and is 6 9 with great length, and who eventually is going to play in the NBA., Another kid undrafted out of Clemson is KC Rivers......big guard. Might get a call as hes been a scoring binge. Surprise players: Brandon Knight at Milwaukee. He is on a just awful team, but Knight has kept improving. If I were a GM Id try to steal Knight away. Id try to get mcCallum from sacramento, too, but i doubt they move him . now its almost march madness time....and this list isnt really in any order...not really, and its all going to change some after the NCAA tourney...but..... 1. Dante Exum. This comes with a large asterisk.....because nobody has seen enough to know yet. But this is a kid...a teenager still, and a freak athlete. So the potential is elite. At the USA vs World nike summit, you can see hes the best player on the floor, hands down. Hes my #1, without question. He seems tough, and sees the court. But just not enough of a sample size yet for total certainty. But man, if you have the first pick, its hard to find a justification for not taking him (though I doubt he will go number one, but probably two or three). Exum is going to be exceptional. Think Penny Hardaway. He is the potential franchise guy this time. 2 Andrew Wiggens......been overhyped. Exceptional athlete, no question. But lacks that Kobe gene....not the stone cold killer that Kobe or MJ was. Fluid, graceful, and effortless. Can shoot. Looks like Tracey McGrady when he plays and thats probably his ceiling. No question though, hes an elite pure athlete. Might end up awfully good as a pure scorer. He can really fly to the hoop......but for me, there are questions about the intangibles. Has a lot to learn, and has not shown that aggressiveness that guys like KD or Kobe did. Still.........there is no doubt he has real and unusual talent. 3. Jabari Parker.......i think parker is NBA ready, but i worry hes a tweener. I worry about his athleticism especially on defense. Can he guard fours? No, probably not. Can he guard threes? Some of them, yeah. But he is going to be at best an average, barely, defender. AT BEST. But...on offense he has great instincts. Not as explosive as you like, and i think hes not a franchise guy, but hes going to score. He has a high hoop IQ. Gets to the basket. He will score. The question is how much will he improve on defense, and is he is too much of a ball dominant offensive player (i.e. Carmelo). 4. Noah Vonleh........freak size. 7 3 wingspan and stands 6 10....which makes him a big and agile four. Has no real post offense YET. But on defense hes really strong, tough, and has that length. He can be a really top end defensive player. Is still very young though and really has no offensive sophistication at all. A project. But with really high upside. I think Vonleh wont ever be a star, because I just dont think he can make that big a jump as a scorer. But you have to like his size and strength. He can end up a poor mans Al Horeford. Or he can end up Al horeford. 5. Rodney Hood. Is 6 8.....doesnt play that big, but is the best pure shooter in the class probably, and that includes McDermott. Left handed. Is he a two guard or a three? Hes 21, because he took a year off transferring from Miss State to duke. Playing next to parker he;s not the focus of the offense......but, man can he shoot. Quick release, and is hitting 45% on college threes. I think hes a two guard probably. Has a bit of terrence ross in that he prefers jump shots to driving. But i love Hood. He just knows how to play, is smart, and has extraordinary body control. Can shoot off balance in the lane. Very economical, finds space, makes the shot. Now, on the downside, he isnt a great defender, but I dont see him as a liability on defense. It depends what you want, I guess, because Hood is going to be a 16 pt a night guy without much problem. Hood is a sure thing, too. 6. Bogdan Bogdanovich. I love this kid. Is freaky long at 6 6, with a near 7 ft wingspan. Great shooter, great ball handler, and great passer. Has no weaknesses to his game. Plays defense. As a two guard, he has elite upside. Is vastly underrated right now. Serbian. Might choose not to come over first year, but honestly, has as high an upside as anyone this side of exum. 7.Aaron Gordon. I love gordon too. Hood, Bogdanovich and Gordan are all slam dunk prospects...for what they are. Gordan cant shoot though. Cant hit free throws. But hes only 18. A very young freshman. But physically mature, though he could still grow another inch. Reminds me of shawn marion in a way. Is a tweener though....but his defense is the best in the entire draft class. ELITE on ball defender. So even at 6 8 he can guard bigger power forwards without any problem. And is quick enough to guard threes. Wont give you a lot of points. Is a cross between marion and Faried. Like Faried he has the ability to get in the air quickly. Great hops. With the right coach, he can be an all star..maybe....at least on defense. Gordon is a stopper.....the only true defensive stud in the draft (well, so is Harell)....but I doubt he can become a very proficient scorer. 8. Joel Embiid.........FREAK size. 7 2. with a 7 5 wingspan........former soccer player. Can run, nice feet, but a kid still. Super raw. Has no game. And i worry he lacks toughness. What happens when Marc Gasol or tyson chandler mug him? But....but....insane size. Insane. I dont know, I think personally, Id not touch him, even though I see the *potential*. (not to mention his recent back problems.....remember brad daugherty and bill walton even, and ralph sampson?). 9 Montrezl Harrell. Ive fallen back in love with Trezl. The more you watch him, the more potential you see. Right now his offense is primitive. But he has the athletic ability to eventually develop a low post game. If he learns just a bit more touch...if he can.....hes a top five guy. As it is, he cant go left, and isnt a good ball handler at all. So there is risk. BUT........man is he a shot blocker, a rim protector. And while hes been criticized for not having court awareness, I disagree. Hes young, not grown fully into his body. At worst, hes a terrific defensive four. Never mind hes barely 6 8,. he has a 7 3 wingspan. Timing on his blocks is good, and he bothers shooters on the perimeter. He seems to have OK hands, I mean hes not Festus Ezeli or anything, he actually HAS hands. Honestly, Id feel good taking him ahead of a lot of these guys rated in the top seven, say. Top eight. Harrell can be one of the surprises of this draft because at the very worst you are getting a stopper inside. Hes also very strong and tough and doesnt mind contact. 10 KJ McDaniels..........my sleeper pick. Only 6 6 but plays bigger. Isnt a two guard. Is a three, and has insane hops. Elite athleticism, but only an average shooter. Should be able to improve...is already improving. And figures to improve his shot selection. Plays for bad team at Clemson, so its hard to know how he will adjust to a real organizied system, but certainly plays bigger than he is, is a very very good defender inside. Tough, plays with a lot of energy. And has an outstanding mid range game, can create space and make those floaters. I really like McDaniels. Has a touch of the young gerald wallace to him. OR think a small forward version of Josh Smith. 11. Julius Randle. The guy can score. Is the best post player in the draft. An exceptional shooter inside and mid range. Great rebounder. But a touch undersized and only has average strength. I like randle though. There is no question he can score right now...tomorrow, in the NBA. Doesnt seem to grasp the flow of the game sometimes. So there is a real concern how well he learns NBA defensive schemes. But if he gets stronger, hell be fine, and at worst, you get a guy who delivers points inside. Is a slightly bigger version of paul milsap. 12. PJ Hairston. is in D league now after getting kicked off North carolina team. But exceptional shooter ....super quick release, textbook stroke. Just sick shooter from anywhere. Catch and shoot guy. And.....is a great defender!! Plays hard and is very VERY strong for a two guard. Not a great ball handler though. Rebounds really well for a guard. Over all is a great prospect, just not a star...mostly because hes a below the rim player. Is a bit like Tony Allen but a better shooter. Id rather have Hairston than marcus smart for sure. Is 6 5 and comes in at 230 lbs. A beefy bruiser with lightening release on his shot. Is just a pretty shooter with range. Im big on Hairston. 13. James Young.........6 7.... looks like the blueprint for a two guard/ or three. But.is only 19.....hasnt produced yet, but is a freshman. WIll take time. Right now hes going to be overdrafted because hes on Kentucky. Upside is big though...but a risk. Not as explosive as youd like. And while I know hes still just a freshman, youd expect a bit more awareness on defense. Not a lottery pick to my mind. Not even a top 25. In fact, has the faint writing of *bust* on his forehead. 14. Dario Saric. Bosnian.....6 10.....can run, can pass. Exceptional ball handler for a guy this big. Is great shooter. With range. But not a great athlete, and his defense just sucks. Potential bust. 15. Adrien Payne......6 9 with good length. GREAT vertical ....insane hops.....above the rim. Is a senior. Upside is not so great. What you see is what you get. A decent shooter who can actually hit threes. Rebounds well, but im not sure about his core strength. In a sense, hes a bit overrated I think. Is a good player, a nice big four, with the ability to defend, but not a star, or even close to one I dont think. But he can jump, can block shots, and might be able to learn enough to become a solid defender who can give you ten points a night on put backs, and sometimes drain a three.. But if you gave me the choice between Payne and Harrell, there is no question you take Trezl........and honestly, I think jarnell stokes is better if you factor in defense. 15 gary Harris.......average size for a two guard. A tad undersized maybe. But plays good defense, does a lot of the small things, and has great feet. Is a better than average shooter, but not elite. Hard to know his upside....might not be that great. Might just be another very good defensive minded two. Has had a tendency to get dinged up a lot, too. I dont see a very high ceiling. Could be rodney stuckey... at best. 16. Jerami Grant.....cousin of Horace. Nice size for a three, long arms, and plays very good defense. Not a great shooter though. Scores inside. Plays at syracuse so Im biased against him. Its hard to know how hes going to play outside that zone. Maybe better athlete than player, and isnt really an elite athlete, just a very good one. Who is he? Poor mans quincey pondexter maybe. I mean Grant could develop, still. His defensive potential is high. Be interesting to see how he does in individual workouts. He has a 7 1 wingspan on a 6 8 frame, thats pretty unusual. 17. Tyler Ennis...another sycause guy. Seems overrated right now. Good size for a point guard at 6 3., but lacks elite quickness. Is a bit like trey burke, but bigger. Great handle though. Doesnt turn it over. Just not explosive on offense, and only an average shooter from range. But, his turnover to assist ratio is exceptional. He makes very few mistakes. Smart, sees the floor, and thats not something to dismiss. Ennis is ok. 18. Wayne Selden....prototype two guard. Strong, over powers college defenders. Lacks explosion. Is a good enough shooter and will probably get better. Has great reach but lacks itensity, at this point anyway, on defense. I dont like guys who dont produce enough, and Selden just doesnt. That said, he seems to be improving in all areas. No first step. Hes just a nice body, plays decent offense, can get to the rim, draws fouls, is unafraid. What I like best about Selden, and hes been growing on me, is that he is fearless going to the basket. He draws a LOT of fouls. If he keeps working on his shot, then Selden could be something of steal actually. He is BIG for a two guard...and weighs over 220....so he can really be a force if it all were to come together. But its a risk. 19/. Nik Staukus. I dont really see the great appeal of staukus. He can shoot, but his release is a tad slow. Not a great athlete....but decent. Needs to get stronger. Has a pretty high hoop IQ....he knows how to play and plays hard. His defense is below average though and there are other wing guys Id rather have. 20. Sam Dekker.........the new kyle singler, but probably better. But the biggest concern is how SLOW is release is. He just doesnt get off fast. He can shoot when set. Has a nice *looking* shot for sure. Plays very very hard. An over achieving wing guy with mediocre tools. High hoop IQ, and Bo Ryan produces smart savy players. Dekker is going to be a solid pick, just not a starter. 21. TJ Warren. You know, i loved warren first time I saw him. But the more you watch the more one dimensional you realize he is. Has no hops, no great power inside. He can shoot....he manages to score, and thats not an accident. He can be a canny sort of scorer for someone. His mid range game is actually not that good though. But he knows how to play within his limits, and he does produce. On defense his tries. Also, hes the typical tweener. The wrong kind of tweener. Unless he gets stronger hes really just a role player. And i suspect he gets way overdrafted. 22 Mitch McGary. Now, he had a back operation so thats a big red flag. But putting that aside for a second, I love mcgary. At first he was overhyped, but the more you watch the more you want this guy on your team. Can be a nick collinson sort of impact role player. Insane effort...goes all out all the time. Has great hands, has good length, is more athletic than he looks. Wont ever be a great shooter, but he can be super valuable big man in rotation. Hes 6 10 with good reach. Plays very hard defense, and wont be pushed around. I see him listed as a second rounder and honestly, Id take him anywhere after #20. Think Bill Laimbeer. 23 Nick Johnson. Only 6 2 and NOT a point guard. Thats the problem. But he is a freak athlete..... maybe the best athlete in the class and that includes wiggens. Blidningly fast, aggressive on defense, and has a 40 in vertical. He has no position though, but in a way, these days, at 6 2 with his kind of tools, he can find a home as a back up two guard. And sometimes point guard (Maybe). I really do like Johnson just for his defensive potential. Can easily guard bigger players. Reminds me of avery bradley. 24 Ron Baker. Man, I love baker. I mean not a great athlete, and undersized as a two guard at 6 3. But he makes plays. Hes just a basketball player. He helps teams win. And he can really really shoot. Is an outstanding shooter from anywhere. Will suffer some on defense, but not for lack of effort. Id take baker anywhere in the second round. Plays for witchita state so hes not on the radar quite so much. But mark it down, Baker will find a home and do well. 25 Brandon Dawson.....michigan state kid, is freaky athlete...no question. Raw game right now, but he can really play defense. Has huge upside. HUGE. In a way Dawson can be listed as one of the steals I think. Id take him early second round without hesitation. If you need a wing who can run and jump and play impact defense, then Dawson is it. However, only an average shooter. Has a funky looking shot. The game doesnt come naturally to him for some reason. He is a high risk high reward pick. 26 Russ Smith......man, the ultimate steal in this draft. Smith might not ever be a starter because he hasnt yet learned how to make others better., Point guards need to do that.. Only 6 ft, but super fast. Has ty lawson kind of speed and great handle. And he can shoot. And he plays tenacious defense. I dont get why he isnt seen as one of the top three pgs in this class. Not perfect, but this isnt a good draft for point guards. Smith knows how to score, and he wont be a problem, despite his size, on defense. Hes also a winner. 27 Melvin Ejim........a tweener, but man, Ejim can play. Does a bit of everything, and has a knack for getting it done at both ends. Is very tough, fearless, doesnt mind physical play at all. Is a good but not great shooter. Not sure what kind of range he has on his shot. But clearly has had a blow up season at iowa state. Ejim is a solid second round pick. Is a great role player wing, and maybe can guard fours on occasion, too. And I mean, why is Jerami Grant better than Ejim?? Only because he plays at an elite school and was hyped out of high school. Id rather have Ejim I think...even if his upside is lower. 28. Jarnell Stokes....another favorite of mine. Never going to be a star, but hes 69 and has freaky length and HUGE hands. Is a thug inside. Just a brutal punishing big man. Part Reggie Evans and part Brandon Bass. Stokes is possibley a better NBA prospect than Payne, except he cant shoot as well. But he sure rebounds and defends better. And, he does have good touch inside, but just no range shooting wise. Hes listed as a second rounder but I suspect after personal workouts he might climb into the first. 29 Jordan McCrae........also, like Stokes, from Tennessee. 6 5 with long arms...reminds me a bit of michael cooper. Is disruptive on defense, anticipates well, and is a much improved shooter. Can knock down threes now and actually does so at over 40%. Why isnt mccrae listed higher?? I dont understand it. Along with Russ Smith, Stokes, Ejim, Baker, and Mcgary, one of the second round steals. 30. Brandon Ashley,.....the other brandon. From Arizona. Has hops, is quick, long but lacks strength. And i think is soft. His speed doesnt make up for an average skill set. 31. Vasilije Micic.......serbian point guard. From what ive seen, he is a deceptively strong kid, a former skier, with very good handle. Has size for the position and great vision. Throwback point guard. Average defender, because he lacks lateral quickness. Not sure what his upside is. However, hes 6 4 with great handle and vision, so hes going to be drafted high second. 32 Deonte Burton. Only 6. But pretty good length, and is very fast. Plays hard, and plays for a crappy team. Is very hard to evaluate (this years reggie jackson)........once he learns to play within a system which might take a year of D League, Burton could be a very solid back up pg. I like his toughness and cockiness. 33 C. J Wilcox. reminds me a poor mans Kent caldwell pope. Good shooter, if set. No great first step, and is miserable on defense. Lacks intensity. 34. Semaj Christon.......small program point guard (Xavier). Good size and is very very fast with the ball. Not elite handle though. And has played a lot out of position. Has raw tools to be good. When hes *on*, Christon is pretty great as a slashing score first point. Not sure his upside....but worth taking a hard look at, because at times he appears to be a potential star. But just as often dissappears. 35. Zach LaVine..........man, I dont know. Reminds me a tiny bit of chase budinger. Cant defend, but is outstanding shooter from anywhere...with legit 3pt range. Great above the rim bounce. Needs a lot of strength. Needs to stay in school essentially. If he comes out he will be overdrafted because he shoots well from 3 pt range and is an above the rim player. But his defense is awful, and he needs to get a lot stronger. 36. Doug McDermott........ok, epic shooter. Really does shoot as well as anyone ever. He and rodney hood are elite pure shooters. But he cant guard my grandmother. I mean he just is hopless on defense so what do you do with him?? I wouldnt draft him, regardless of how well he knows the game and how hard he plays. Or how well he shoots. Because in the end he lacks the athleticism to play in the NBA. But...in the right system, you cant discount his shooting. And his intelligence. Coachs son. Played four years at Creighton. The best case scenario is that he plays as a Ryan Anderson four, on a team with a big center to protect the rim. 37. Willie Cauley Stein. Well, anyone who can walk and chew gum and is 7ft is going to be drafted too high. Stein lacks toughness. I think hes soft. He is graceful and can really run. When he has space, he can even defend. Even block shots. But.......if you want a big man, take walter taveras of Cape Verde....at 7 2 hes much bigger and much tougher. Just a lot slower. But....what does Stein really do for you?? 38. Alex Poythress.........looks to be an energy guy off the bench....as a ceiling. Just cant shoot. reminds me a bit of thomas robinson in that he somehow is always a half step late. Bad anticipation. But hes tough enough, and plays hard...at least harder now.....and he can rebound ok. But hes also a tweener. 39. LeBryan Nash........once seen a lottery pick, Nashs problem is that hes a head case. Very immature. That said....hes worth a late second round pick WITHOUT QUESTION......at 6 7 and 235 lbs Nash is an exceptional athlete, with hops, with amazingly strength. Can overpower guys. But his game is all over the place. Once compared to ron artest, those comparisons have gone away. But , if he ever were to put it together, he could be a star. Thats a big if at this point, however. 40/ Khem Birch.....UNLV...... I think Birch is underrated. A bit undersized for a four, he can certainly still defend and he plays solid D. He can score ok, at least from ten feet. Not exceptional at anything, but I think he can find a home. A pretty solid player as a late second round pick. Is a great leaper and can probably improve as a shot blocker. 41. Rondae Hollis Jefferson. Might likely return to school. But i like what Ive seen. He is a rangly very long wing player who plays solid high effort defense. Is raw on offense. Has a funky shot, and no ball handling skills. But hes very young. 42. Fuquan Edwin........seton hall. A self made wing guy, but only barely 6 6. Not quick enough to play much two guard. But is a fierce defender with long arms and quick hands. Im something of a fan of edwin. Only seen limited minutes of him, but he also shoots pretty well. A total sleeper who might surprise people. Strictly a role player though. But a productive role player like Bruce Bowen, or Shane Battier. Edwin is really deserving of being a low first round pick. Im big on Edwin. 43 Josef Nukic.,, Ive not seen a lot because he plays in Europe. At first row Sports, you can watch euro league games, though. Nukic is massive. 6 11. around 260 lbs. Not a great leaper, and barely gets off the ground to be honest. But hes young. And you cant teach size. He might have more potential than a willie cauley stein for example. Hard to know exactly. 44 Marcus Smart.........well, Smart can be a decent defensive minded two guard. Hes another Tony Allen type. Got way overrated early though. He cant shoot. Cant shoot threes. Is an ok ball handler, but hes not a pg. But he has an attitude, plays confidently, and likes contact. Those guys are sort of rare actually. But....but he wont score all that much. It just mystifies me why he is thought of as a top ten pick. 45 Lamar Patterson.........2 guard from Pitt. I sort of like Patterson. Hes strong, he hustles at both ends, but hes an average athlete and just doesnt look to have a very high ceiling. That said, there are worse picks. 46. Jabari Brown. A slightly undersized two guard. Good athlete.......has bounce, and explosion, albeit not at a real elite level. But he does produce and is a streaky shooter. Brown is one of those guys who can stick around in the league. Plays hard, shoots well, and defends well enough. Nothing special, but a solid role player. 47. Kyle Anderson.......UCLA....6 9 or a bit more. Terrific passer, just exceptional passing skills. But cant defend. I mean cant defend AT ALL. Is young and should stay in school. And go to the weight room every day. 48. Clint Capela..........Swiss/African. Insane length on skinny 6 10 frame. Terrible ball handler...reminds me of Bismark Biyambo. Now, its taken Biyambo three years to develop any game at all, but he is, now, an effective undersized 5. On defense anyway. So what is the ceiling for a prospect like Capella?? Really hard to say, but its going to take several years is my point...and, it might NEVER happen. 49 Glenn Robinson 3rd. Has had a dissapointing year to be honest. He has skills, is an above average athlete....but not exceptional at any one thing. Just hasnt improved as a shooter. He can slash, and finish, and its a tease because one gets the feeling if the light goes *on*, then GR3 could be a tim hardaway jr type of guy. If he falls to the 2nd round, hes probably a good pick because his upside remains pretty high. But mostly, he feels generic to me. 50 Walter Taveras.......from Cape Verde, playing in Europe now. Is still pretty young, but is 7 2....with huge wingspan. Hes a space eater but really I think hes got some upside if he finds the right organization. Taveras can run too. Hes not exactly fast, but hes not a plodder. Still learning the game. Is raw. But man, that sort of size is rare. Hes huge huge huge. Long, and in a way, could be the ultimate sleeper in this draft. 50....have to mention Aaron Craft. A throwback point guard. Sort of a kevin ollie type. Plays exceptional defense. Bothered Kyrie Irving two years ago in a big game. Only 6 2, but guards anyone. Great hoop IQ, plays unselfish at both ends. Not a great athlete. And not a great shooter. His mid range game is ok, hes not a bad shooter, but hes not a scorer. Someone with the right system will draft Craft. He has excellent handle, and is a great passer. The one thing you dont get, however, is great outside shooting. There are a couple others, LaQuinten Ross, and jabari bird....but nobody i see as really draftable. If i had the #1 pick I take Exum. If hes gone I take Wiggens. I might not love Wiggens, and i have questions, but you cant knock his pure talent. Third Id probably take Vonleh. The biggest sleeper in round one is McDaniels, with Hood and Bogdanovich both being undervalued. I should mention Mario Herzonja........croatian guard. I dont think he declares for this draft as hes just 18. Nobody has seen too much of him, is 6 6 and fast and has big rep in euro ball. Mid round Harrell is a guy to take. Late...McGary, Hairston, and if he lasts, Sam Dekker. Second round: watch Taveras....but Stokes, Baker, Smith, McCrae and Ejim...and Edwin. Its a great and deep second round. You know, after march madness the name Cleanthony Early might start getting some traction. The witchita state team is undefeated.......because of Baker and Early. You cant knock success. Two years in a row Baker and Early have led the Shockers. Super- Small school guys getting hype now...Elijah Pittman of marshall whove I not seen, and Elfrid Payton the point guard from Louisiana Lafayette. Also not seen him, but those names keep coming up.
Posted on: Wed, 12 Mar 2014 15:30:25 +0000
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