is view of Chinas motives explains its recent conduct. Ever since President Obama announced the pivot, China has tested U.S. willingness to support its allies over the Scarborough Shoals and Senkaku/Daioyu disputes. Until his Asian trip last month, Obama seemed inclined to step back from Americas commitments, but his bold words in Tokyo and Manila suggest he has recovered his resolve to stand firm. Now we can expect China to test this newly-recovered resolve by applying more pressure in the same places or elsewhere. And that is what Beijing is doing today in the waters off Vietnam. It is calling Obamas bluff. Expect more pressure against Manila and Tokyo soon. Of course this carries risks for China. It does not want to fight America, so it must be confident in the judgment that America will back down and desert its friends rather than engage in conflict with China, even if backing down badly weakens the U.S. position in Asia. This confidence reflects two key judgments by Chinas leaders. First, they believe that Chinas new anti-access/area denial capabilities can deny America a quick and easy victory in an maritime clash in the East Asian littoral waters. They have been reassured by Americas own Air-Sea Battle doctrine that the U.S. knows it cannot prevail in these waters without launching a major campaign of strikes against Chinese territory. Such strikes would obviously risk a major escalation which might not stop below the nuclear threshold. So Chinas leaders think their U.S. counterparts understand that a war with China today is one that America could not be confident of either winning or limiting.
Posted on: Tue, 03 Jun 2014 10:33:02 +0000
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