michaelshermer/2010/12/the-conspiracy-theory-detector/ Banyak gag di sini yang suka denger teori konspirasi? Mau tau gag cara menilai mana yang masuk akal dan tidak 1. Alur cerita and bukti harus bersambung Proof of the conspiracy supposedly emerges from a pattern of “connecting the dots” between events that need not be causally connected. When no evidence supports these connections except the allegation of the conspiracy or when the evidence fits equally well to other causal connections — or to randomness — the conspiracy theory is likely to be false. 2. Pelaku konspirasi harus dalam batas kekuatan yang wajar The agents behind the pattern of the conspiracy would need nearly superhuman power to pull it off. People are usually not nearly so powerful as we think they are. 3. Konspirasi yang terlibat terlalu banyak orang, sepertinya tidak masuk akal. Karena orang pada dasarnya sulit menjaga rahasia Similarly, the conspiracy involves large numbers of people who would all need to keep silent about their secrets. The more people involved, the less realistic it becomes. 4. Kalo motivasinya menguasai umat manusia, sepertinya tidak masuk akal The conspiracy encompasses a grand ambition for control over a nation, economy or political system. If it suggests world domination, the theory is even less likely to be true. 5. Makin mikro skalanya lebih masuk akal The conspiracy theory ratchets up from small events that might be true to much larger, much less probable events. 6. Konspirasi yang berbentuk simbol seprtinya tidak penting dan berbahaya The conspiracy theory assigns portentous, sinister meanings to what are most likely innocuous, insignificant events. 7. Harus masuk akal The theory tends to commingle facts and speculations without distinguishing between the two and without assigning degrees of probability or of factuality. 8. Mencurigai semua agen pemerintah, tanpa spesifikasi The theorist is indiscriminately suspicious of all government agencies or private groups, which suggests an inability to nuance differences between true and false conspiracies. 9. Tidak bisa menerima penjelasan lain yang masuk akal, sepertinya tidak masuk akal The conspiracy theorist refuses to consider alternative explanations, rejecting all disconfirming evidence and blatantly seeking only confirmatory evidence to support what he or she has a priori determined to be the truth. 10. Kalau elementnya terlalu kompleks sepertinya lebih tidak masuk akal The conspiracy is complex, and its successful completion demands a large number of elements. Tambahan saya pribadi 1. Bisa dijelaskan secara detil, dan alur ceritanya bersambung, juga bisa berhubung dengan dunia nyata. 2. Kredibilitas nara sumber 3. Pelaku kejahatan, harus bisa menyeimbankan antara biaya dan motive. Contoh: niat menguasai dunia, membutuhkan biaya terlalu besar. Membunuh president, membutuhkan biaya besar, tetapi bila si president sedang menyelidiki kasus korupsi. Maka biaya yang dikeluarkan sipelaku terbayar oleh hasil imbas baliknya. Ayo kita analisa teori konspiracy. Btw Michael Shermer adalah penulis resmi sceitific America. Dia juga sceptic terkena yang menyelidiki berbagai macam claim.
Posted on: Wed, 07 Jan 2015 06:04:36 +0000
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