#tristatewx February 3, 2014: We are on the watch for another winter storm arriving on Tuesday into Tuesday night. If you have final snow totals from last night then feel free to post them here - tell me city and county (state). Winter storm possible Tuesday into Tuesday evening Bitter cold air pours back into the region Wednesday into Friday Winter storm possible later this weekend (low confidence) A complicated forecast for Tuesday - as all of you know. I have been telling you to plan for ice because the models may be too warm with what they are showing. I will be watching data this morning and will walk you through the latest information. Right now I am thinking that parts of NE AR into SE MO into Southern IL will be snow, sleet, and freezing rain from Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening. Western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee will start as a wintry mix and then remain freezing rain through much of the event. Freezing rain may change over to rain near the KY/TN border counties - into KY Lake area - Hopkinsville area may change to rain. I have been thinking that the question mark counties are looking more and more like ice. A winter storm watch or advisory of some sort may need to be issued by the NWS later today. However, the time frame to actually make plans for this winter storm will be today. The storm arrives tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. First spreading from northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee then spreading into Missouri and Illinois/Kentucky. Freezing rain accumulations of 0.25-0.50 appear possible in some of our counties. Most likely that would be somewhere along the Ohio River counties and then northward. Question marks on ice totals for NE AR and NW TN and KY/TN border counties. Lets assume a colder scenario and plan on some short term power outages. Best case we warm up more than forecast and it turns to rain - thus preventing any problems. Worst case scenario temperatures are colder than forecast and more freezing rain falls. Another question mark is going to be sleet. Sleet mixing in will lessen freezing rain totals. Obviously sleet and snow would lower freezing rain totals. A shift in the storm track makes all the difference in this event. The storm will never fully be sampled by the computers until Tuesday morning. This is because it is so far south in Mexico. Thus, the computer models are not very useful. I will post more information below as it streams in this morning...
Posted on: Mon, 03 Feb 2014 12:46:09 +0000
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