#tristatewx February 7, 2014: Folks, it is cold. Now tell you something you didnt know :) Currently it is -3 here at the Weather Observatory. A few months ago I thought someone in southern Illinois might hit -10 degrees this winter. I see that Mt Vernon area is now in the -9 to -13 range. Incredible winter! Some of your young kids have never experienced a winter like this. Multiple nights below zero. We hit -5 here at our place three times in January. We might as well receive our Zero Degree Badge (some of you former-scouts might remember that badge). Of course I wore mine proudly! Remember that snow maker I have been watching for Friday night and Saturday? Well it is making its way into our region from the southwest. There is something we call snow ratios - stick with me here ;) I promise you will understand before I finish. A normal snow produced 1 of liquid (if you were to melt the snow down) for every 10 or 12 inches of snow. In other words if it snows a foot and you melt it down you would have around 1 of snow. That is what we call a normal snow ratio. When it is very cold outside snow ratios go up. Sometimes way up. I have even witnessed 30:1 and 40:1 snow ratios in our region! The snow ratios will be high tonight. That means a fluffy snow that you can almost brush away with a broom (for some counties). Snow ratios will be in the 15:1-30:1 range with this system. So even a light precipitation even could add up rather quickly in a few spots. This does not look like a major winter storm. It does look like a quick moving system that could spread 0.05-0.20 of melted precipitation. It will be all snow. So that equates to a dusting in some counties and a few inches in others. This storm system is centered more over our southern counties vs northern counties. That means Mt Vernon, IL may only see a few flurries and west Kentucky could pick up a few inches. Of course the ground is frozen solid. Anything that falls will stick. The flurries the last few days have been sticking! This could cause some additional travel problems over the next 24 hours. Certainly wont help anything. A winter weather advisory has been issued by the NWS in a few counties. I will post that information in a bit. These systems can be a bit wishy washy - dry air aloft can eat into the totals. Seen it many times. It isnt a powerful system. But, it should produce some skiffs of snow. Also - did you hear the booms over the region the last 24 hours? They have been reported in numerous counties and up the East Coast of the U.S. This time there appears to be some confidence that they are caused by the cold air. I say some confidence because nothing is ever certain as they have been going on for years. Personally I think there are several explanations. This time, however, it is likely because of the freeze and thaw process going on beneath our feet. Sudden cold triggered them after heavy rain. Okay well I hope the above made sense to you. Now you know what snow ratios are? There is a math formula we use to figure up snow ratios. It isnt an exact science, but we usually get close. The forecast Today - some clouds and cold. A stray flurry possible. Highs in the teens. Northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Tonight - A chance for snow. Snow could accumulate a dusting to a few inches over the region. Bulk of it would be over far southern IL and western KY/TN. Some dry air aloft might eat into the snow totals and evaporate the snow on the way day. Overnight lows in the teens. Temperatures may actually rise late tonight. Saturday - Snow showers possible in the morning. Once again cold. Highs in the 20s and lower 30s. Another chance for light snow Sunday. Watching very closely several systems for next week. Again the track of those systems will be key to what happens here in our region. Confidence is fairly low in the extended forecast. Will take a wait and see approach before biting on any precipitation chances. Some links and snow tracking tools below. Give me a second to grab them :) Have a wonderful Friday and weekend. Stay safe and warm!!!!
Posted on: Fri, 07 Feb 2014 13:49:05 +0000
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