Тімоті Еш від Стандард Банку видирає залишки волосся у себе на голові - такого колапсу світ іще не бачив... The most incredible currency collapse I think I have ever seen in the 17 years in the market, and 26 years covering Russia/CIS. You kind of expect it from emerging market economies with 1-2 months of import cover, and twin deficits....but not for a credit like Russia with a huge wall of FX reserves and still running budget and current account surpluses. To see the rouble hit 80 against the USD today was simply incredible, and reflects lower oil prices, yes, but failed policy responses from the CBR, and also underlying market unease over the direction Putins Russia has been moving over the past year, and the geopolitical spat with the West, over Ukraine and more generally. The latter appears to have constrained the policy choices available to the CBR - at least seemingly constrained by the Kremlin. No one expected the rouble to hit 60 this year against the dollar, let alone 70 or 80 even. And no one is positioned for this. This will impart huge short term damage to Russia - there is now a huge credibility gap for Russian policy makers in the eyes of the market. It has only to be a matter of time before the rating agencies respond with ratings downgrades, likely to junk status.
Posted on: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 13:50:36 +0000
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