7:00 PM TUES SEPT 9 2014 Good evening. Severe Weather Concepts continues to monitor the potential for some severe thunderstorms, primarily north and west of Interstate 71, for the late afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday, September 10. A strong cold front will make its way from the plains into the Ohio Valley over the next 36 hours. Ahead of this front, temperatures will be in the 80s and dewpoints will rise into the upper 60s contributing plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico -- all while behind the front temperatures drop into the 60s with dewpoints in the 50s and even 40s. At the same time, instability is expected to increase ahead of the front with abundant sunshine across our region especially early -- though the latest model guidance has backed down on that to some extent. This environment will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and more so Wednesday night. With a good deal of wind shear, plus sufficient momentum transfer as a result of heavy rainfall, damaging winds will be a concern with those storms that develop and persist into our region. At this point other modes of severe weather are less likely because storms will be in bow segments by the time they arrive here, but hail and an isolated tornado can never be entirely ruled out with any severe storm. Here are my thoughts on the timing of storms. For the first half of Wednesday, were dry and partly cloudy across the SWC forecast area. That should allow temperatures to quickly warm into the lower 80s. Initiation of the main event will occur to our west and northwest mid-afternoon along and just ahead of the front. However, I think we could see a few cells develop closer to our region in the late day and take advantage of what should be a sufficiently favorable air mass for development. If more isolated activity were to develop, those storms of course would have a higher probability of becoming severe as theyd be in an untapped storm environment. Whether development occurs closer to the SWC coverage area or not, showers and thunderstorms will still move into the region during the evening hours and persist into the overnight period. The better chances of severe weather are along and to the northwest of the Interstate 71 corridor which is where the Storm Prediction Center currently has a Slight Risk, owing to the timing of the front and associated activity. However, the entire region stands at least a marginal chance into the night. Heavy rainfall will be a concern as well, though storm motions should be rapid enough that only localized flooding of poor drainage areas should result from this. It is worth pointing out again that over the past 24 hours the models have dialed back a bit in terms of instability in the atmosphere, however I myself am not entirely convinced it is indeed going to be how that plays out and still believe sufficient instability will exist for storms to potentially turn severe. We do continue to monitor this situation and will update throughout the day on Wednesday. Please stay with Severe Weather Concepts for updates. --Jeremy
Posted on: Tue, 09 Sep 2014 23:06:49 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015