9. B. Extent of Possible Sentence Reduc tion and Projected Release Dates As part of its analysis, ORD staff estimated the release date for each offender who appears to be eligible to seek a reduced sentence, provided the documentation received for that offender’s case was sufficient to perform this analysis. 1. Methodology for Determining Sentence Reduction and Release Dates The methodology for this analysis is based on the Commission’s Prison Impact Model, which has been in use in some form since the guidelines were first developed. This model is used to estimate the impact of proposed guideline amendments on newly sentenced offenders and to project into the future the impact of those amendments on bed space in the Bureau of Prisons (BOP). For this analysis, those offenders who appear to be eligible to seek a reduced sentence under 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(2) were hypothetically “resentenced” with the computer program as if the amended guideline had been in effect in the year in which they were sentenced. Their new sentences were then compared with their original ( i.e. , actual) sentences to determine the average reduction in sentence length. A new release date for each offender was also calculated in order to determine the year in which each offender would be eligible for release if they were given the full reduction in sentence provided by the guidelines. In performing this analysis, ORD staff were required to make some assumptions concerning the decisions that courts would make in resentencing the offenders. Of course, these assumptions may not hold in every case. Further, as discussed above, this analysis does not account for the applicability, if any, of the Booker decision to 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(2) sentence modifications. The analysis accounts only for the application of the reduction provided by Amendment 7 and does not assume any other reduction in the sentence, consistent with §1B1.10. The assumptions are as follows: (1) each offender would be resentenced at the same point in the new guideline range as they were when originally sentenced; 16 (2) offenders sentenced outside the applicable guideline range at the time they were sentenced would be resentenced to a new position outside the amended guideline range that is the same proportional distance above or below the amended guideline range as their original sentence was from the guideline range 16 Courts are not required to reduce the sentence for any offender seeking such a reduction under the amendment, should it be made retroactive. Courts may also sentence an offender to any point in the new guideline range, and would not be required to impose a sentence at the same point in the new range as it did when first sentencing the offender. For offenders sentenced to a higher point in the new sentencing range than in the original range, the assumption discussed in the text above would overestimate the amount of the offender’s sentence reduction. For offenders sentenced to a lower point in the new sentencing range than in the original range, the assumption discussed in the text above would underestimate the amount of the offender’s sentence reduction
Posted on: Fri, 06 Sep 2013 07:51:39 +0000
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