A couple of things jumped out looking over the Bangor News Ipsos Poll released earlier this week, which may be the last significant poll before Maines Tuesday election. Basically, it has the race a tie between LePage and Michaud, with Cutler well behind. These are the two internals that caught my attention. Asked which candidate they expect will win, those surveyed said LePage by a huge margin, 47 to 33. Similar polls in 2012 showed Obama winning that question. In the last Rasmussen Poll, 55 percent said they believed Obama would win, only 35 percent believed the winner would be Mitt Romney. Considering the national wave election cresting against Democrats all over America, I find it unlikely Michaud has run a good enough campaign to oust the sitting governor. It has been more than a half century since this has happened in Maine. The Maine poll of 12,000 students, which has never been wrong on a gubernatorial election, showed LePage winning, 38.5 to 35.8 percent. the assumption being the students views mirror those of their parents. Now the question of where Eliots Cutlers votes will go. With Cutler still campaigning, but releasing his supporters to vote their conscience, Ispos projected a two-candidate race, Michaud, 48 to 46. But with Michaud out, Cutler easily beats LePage, 53 to 40. So, where do Cutlers voters go? Do they still cast their votes for Cutler, or do they switch to Michaud or LePage. Im putting myself inside the head of the typical Cutler voter. After watching the debates, I decided Cutler easily won. After the Bangor News and just about every other Maine newspaper that endorsed... endorsed Cutler, I think there is a large bloc that still believes Cutler is the best candidate and remain convinced that is true. The typical Cutler voter, in my estimation, is more knowledgable and serious about their choice than partisans of either party. They came to their decision to vote for Cutler as the result of an intellectual process, not from campaign TV ads or a visit by Obama. So, what does the majority of Cutlers 13 or so percent end up doing? My guess is most of them do vote, and they vote for Cutler despite attempts by Michauds supporters to brow beat them into joining their stop-LePage movement. Just a hunch, but I think the final result will be: Gov. Paul LePage, 45 percent. Rep. Mike Michaud, 43 percent. Eliot Cutler, 11 percent. Other, 1 percent.
Posted on: Fri, 31 Oct 2014 22:30:44 +0000
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