A few thunderstorms moved across portions of northern and western AR yesterday in response to an upper disturbance and a frontal system that is stalled from NW to SE across part of western and southern AR. Some of those thunderstorms managed to reach severe levels with damaging wind and 1 hail as they moved SE. Overnight an area of thunderstorms has developed across portions of Kansas and Missouri and is slowly moving to the SE. Some of this activity may make it into northern AR later this morning or afternoon. The rest of us will see a situation similar to yesterday with isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon as the frontal system remains stalled out. Highs will warm into the mid 80s in central AR. Models are showing an area of showers and thunderstorms moving across portions of northern, western and into central AR tonight and this may carry over into Thursday. Lows will be in the 60s with 80s seen again on Thursday under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances look to ease some on Friday and Saturday before a stronger cold front approaches from the NW Saturday night and Sunday. This front will bring showers and thunderstorms along with cooler temps next week. As mentioned previously this week, some of the tropical moisture moving up into the SW US may get tapped into this frontal system which would enhance rainfall amounts. The current forecast is the heaviest rain may stay just to the west and NW of AR in OK/KS but needs to be watched for an eastward shift Saturday night and Sunday. For the Razorback game in Fayetteville, tailgating looks good at this point with partly cloudy skies and temps in the 70s to near 80. For the game, there will be showers and thunderstorms approaching NW AR from OK, but cannot pinpoint timing at this time. There is a good chance they will stay away until after the game and come in later but will need to be watched as updated data comes in. Radar and satellite shot this morning showing area of thunderstorms to the N of AR and the overall flow across AR is from the NW. Current HPC rainfall forecast for Saturday night and Sunday.
Posted on: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 11:02:16 +0000