APC, Buhari and the Electoral Map,  The political albatross of opposition parties in Nigeria is their inability to transcend personal, regional and ethnic divisions for meaningful cooperation and handshake across the Niger. Ethnic considerations used to be the major issue in Nigerian politics with religion being a secondary factor but the debacle caused by Nigeria’s purported induction into Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC), relentless Evangelization by pentecostals, Muslim radicalization and introduction of political sharia changed everything. Since the 1990s, Nigeria lost whatever innocence it had left and allowed religion to be the defining and dominant fault line in the country’s socio-political landscape. Then came the Yar’Adua effect – the reinforcement of the “born to rule” attitude, unguarded statements, wanton acts of impunity and unconstitutional usurpation of powers when President Yar’Adua became terminally ill sent very wrong signals to the southern electorate. The largely Christian South saw the actions of the Yar’adua cabal as an affront, a final assault and a kind of in your face insult to its collective psyche. It forced a reflective fall back into the realization that all four Southern Christian Heads of State or Presidents the country has produced owed their inaugural ascension to accidental factors. The undisguised humiliation of Goodluck Jonathan during those uncertain times was the break point, it brewed a simmering discontent among Southerners which any politician aspiring to the presidency ignores it at his own peril. The lessons learned is reflected in the election of Jonathan and the shut out of Buhari in the South. Those lessons must never be lost on any Northerner interested in presidential politics going forward. The results of the 2011 presidential election exposed an electoral map showing hidden undercurrents of increasing regional, ethnic, and religious polarization, the like of which we have never seen. Many politicians, opinion leaders and pundits will like to downplay the inconvenient truths and hidden realities of religion and ethnicity as demonstrated by the voting pattern and demographics of the 2011 election. However, the realities and truths of our ethnic and religious chasms remain obvious to discerning minds regardless of the Orwellian exercise in political correctness and rhetoric of dismissal that has become fashionable. Arguably, the middle belt (North Central States) has always been the political bellwether region of Nigerian politics. The core determinant of where the power pendulum swings in presidential elections, is in the political leaning of the North Central states. Before the formation of APC, any presidential candidate who wins the middle-belt wins the election because the Southwest always vote for its own regional party. With the merger of opposition parties to form the APC, the equation is about to change. Jonathan’s election, on his own accord is a watershed in the annals of Nigerian politics. It puts paid to the notion of Northern hegemony and even if it ever existed, it has run its course and outlived its usefulness. Despite the massive discontent over Jonathan’s violation of the PDP zoning agreement and the political structures set up to wrestle power from him and return it to the north, he won in a landslide. T he outcome of the election signals an emergent ethno-religious consensus stoked by the likes of Ayo Oritsejafor for the Christian South and Mallam Adamu Ciroma under the umbrella of Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) and the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF). The activities of these Northern groups heated up the already fragile polity, it served as a rallying point for Northerners and achieved the outcome of galvanizing the Middle Belt and Southern States for Jonathan. This dichotomy led to bigotry by religious leaders – instructing their member to vote candidates of their respective religious affiliations. The powerful Christian leaders of the South instructed their followers to vote their faith at the elections.
Posted on: Tue, 20 Aug 2013 08:08:00 +0000
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