Azerbaijans strategic realignment, an Ukrainian scenario on steroids? Recent studies have suggested that Azerbaijans ‘oil riches’ are essentially a myth manufactured by the United States Geological Service. US policy toward Azerbaijan has always aimed to control Russia’s post-Soviet development, rather than being purely driven by profits. While there was plenty of money to be made in Azerbaijan for energy corporations, it was never the “rival to the Middle East” that many had pretended it would be. In fact, the gross miscalculation may have been less of an error than an intended consequence of the Big Lie of Azerbaijani oil wealth – a lie propagated both by Baku and westerners keen to do business in Azerbaijan. The reality of global politics is bringing Azerbaijan closer to Russia. Naturally, the West, along with Israel, view any warming of relations as a direct threat to their own interests. And so, the proxy war expands into a new theater, with the West heating up its rhetoric. The US will use civil society organizations and NGOs to effect regime change or a color revolutions in case Aliyev decides to go ahead with geopolitical realignment. Baku would do well to examine the precedent set in Ukraine to understand what might lie in store for it. Armenia will monitor these changes very carefully, the number of very recent articles below reflect a co-ordinated tone vis-a-vis Wests relation to Baku. Another source of concern is that the West might use Islamist elements to exert pressure on Baku, perhaps ISIS style. Finally, this serves as a window of opportunity to settle Artsakhs status to Armenias favor. Azerbaijan pressures press freedom advocates family, raids apartment ifex.org/azerbaijan/2014/11/11/family_pressured/ Azerbaijan Sets New Low for Council of Europe hrw.org/news/2014/11/12/dispatches-azerbaijan-sets-new-low-council-europe
Posted on: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 10:57:48 +0000
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