Black predictions for 2015 .: Bankruptcy Russia, crash in London, a great volcanic eruption Saxo Bank as every year, compiled a list of so-called. The Black Swan. This unexpected event that could potentially shake up the global economy in the coming year. Although the likelihood of the realization of the forecasts is small, but the history of the financial markets have repeatedly showed that even unrealistic scenarios proved to be true. No one had expected a year ago, for example. That the price of oil falls below $ 70 per barrel, and the German economy slowing meet. Saxo Banks 10 predictions for 2015: 1. Disaster in the UK property market In previous years, real estate prices in the UK, especially London soared. Forecasts show that seen in recent months, deflation is coming to an end, and so prices may go up again. Analysts fear that the market overheating and bursting, which may result in a crash. This can be seen even after the operations of the Bank of England, who recently retired from the idea of granting cheap loans to commercial banks. The loans were used to finance housing loans. 2. Inflation in Japan at the level of 5 percent. The Bank of Japan is still heavily prints new money, which destroys confidence in the yen. Also decreases the value of the Japanese currency. Some analysts believe that the countrys authorities lose control over its currency, which could result in a significant increase in inflation - just to the level of 5 percent. 3. The value of the yuan will fall by 20 percent. Saxo Banks analysts say Chinas economy is under pressure deflation which could translate into a decision of the central bank of the country in the. Weakening of the yuan. Beijing can expect that with the lower value of the Chinese currency (say analysts downgrading by as much as 20 percent.) Country will stimulate internal demand and it will be cheaper imported goods. 4. replace Draghi Weidmann President of the European Central Bank has a good chance to take the presidential reins in his native Italy. The current president of 89-year-old Giorgio Napolitano has said he does not want to perform this function and step down from his post. Probably replace it właśniie Mario Draghi. If so, it will fill the vacancy on the ECB Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank. 5. The deep recession in Russia Falling oil prices getting cheaper ruble and a further deterioration in relations between Moscow and the West will make Russian companies fall into more trouble. Without foreign financing will have to increase savings and definitely reduce investment, thereby significantly slow down their development. 6. Hackers Internet will lead to Armageddon Next year, hacker attacks on large companies with e-commerce market will continue, but their nature is much more common and aggressive. This can lead to a loss of customer confidence. According to analysts at Saxo Bank will feel it most strongly Amazon, whose shares may fall in value as much as 50 percent. 7. An eruption creates a gas cloud over Europe Icelandic volcano Bárðarbunga will be even more active, and next year will trigger a huge gas cloud, which in the summer will float over Europe. Hit it in agriculture, aviation and tourism. Grain prices rise, and airlines and travel agents will count losses. 8. Cocoa for the rich Cocoa price will increase to 5 thousand. dollars per ton. Today, for the quantity of the goods you have to pay about 3 thousand,. dollars. Saxo Banks analysts forecast that the demand for chocolate will rise in western countries as well as Asia. A ruling Ebola epidemic in Africa hamper delivery, which will affect the price. 9. United Kingdom outside the EU? Fears that Britain leaves the structure of the European Union next year will increase. According to experts from Saxo Bank UK Independence Party in the May election win 25 percent. votes and become the third political force in parliament. Prime Minister David Cameron set up the UKIP coalition government, but his condition will organize in 2017 a referendum on UK membership in the EU. 10. Worse yields Already, corporate bond yields in Europe is low. Investors are increasingly aware of this issue, so prices start to fall. According to analysts, Saxo Banks collapse in bond prices could shake the already weak foundations of the European economy.
Posted on: Thu, 11 Dec 2014 07:55:43 +0000
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