Can ‘Guardians Of The Galaxy’ Help Rescue The Summer Box Office? This domestic box office weekend was off 28% which has people wondering why. Could it be that the quality is just not there? “Yeah, what the hell is going on, right?” said one distributor when I asked. “It’s content driven. We’re in a slump at the moment, but next year will be better. This year, I don’t think it’s any indication that problems are anything but the content.” As in quality … or lack thereof, and I think that most of Deadline readers would concur that this summer that has seen some gems (like The Fault in Our Stars, Apes, Heaven is For Real) wrapped around some real stinkers (A Million Ways to Die in the West, Moms Night Out). But, as we’ve reported before, it’s a cyclical business. Next summer does look more promising when audiences will see the April 3rd release of Fast and Furious 7, followed in May by the highly-anticipated The Avengers: Age of Ultron and then The Fantastic Four, Jurassic World, Ted 2, and Terminator, to name a few. But here’s the question: When will the industry see a movie that will go four consecutive weekends in a row at No. 1? (see chart below). And could Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy do it? There was a time when it was more commonplace and you could see it happen two to three times a year, but now they are far and fewer between (see chart below). With one remake and sequel after another being sandwiched together, there’s little time for a picture (or studio marketing/distribution teams) to breathe anymore. The last time a movie stayed No. 1 for four weeks was in 2012 when Hunger Games bowed from Lionsgate. Before that it was 2008 when Warner Bros.’ The Dark Knight swooped into theaters. The Lego Movie which came out in February almost did it, but the animated favorite was knocked from its perch after three weeks in a row when Non-Stop and Son of God rose past it. So when will the next one come? Will it be Star Wars next year … or maybe … could it actually still happen this summer? It’s not really over until the fat lady … er raccoon … sings, you know. All eyes are on Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy which opens on Aug. 1., traditionally a slow month as the summer winds down. “Disney and Marvel are unleashing a beast where it is normally a softer time frame. August is called a dog day for a reason. And it is bold and it may be the shot in the arm the summer needs,” noted Paul Dergardibian, senior media analyst. Right now, Guardians (which is oddly different from any other of its franchise pics) is tracking around $68M to $70M and maybe higher — in fact, some think that $70M to $80M is not out of the question. If Guardians can open that big and then get around Expendables 3 (Expendables 2 opened to $28.5M) in its third weekend out, it could actually pull it off. Might be tough, but it is possible. And it has the IMAX screens for three weeks in a row and it looks like it might secure a fourth week right now. Regardless, if Guardians opens higher than Bourne Ultimatum‘s $69.2M in 2007, Disney will have opened and closed the box office summer (yes, it came early this year on April 4) with the highest April opener in Captain America: The Winter Soldier and the highest August opener of all time in Guardians. While the domestic box office has been flailing this summer, internationally, pictures have actually fared very well … in fact, it’s been on fire. It’s been a shape-shifting business model that has been going on for many years now but to look at a few that have played out or are still in play: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes ($103M and just at its start) X-Men: Days of Future Past ($508M), Neighbors ($105.4M), The Other Woman ($111.15), Maleficent ($468.8M) and, of course, Transformers ($659.1M), to name but a few. Edge of Tomorrow, for instance, is nearing $100M in the U.S. at $96.6M, but has already made $261.3M abroad and 22 Jump Street is at $88.3M gross so far with a long way yet to go. Sony’s been smart about its release overseas and it did well despite the World Cup. In fact, kudos to Fox for being so prudent, as my colleague Nancy Tartaglione has pointed out in her reporting, for slotting its films so smartly around the World Cup this year to reap the maximum gross on its pictures. They did well with both tentpoles and counter-programmers. For instance, an unlikely picture about two kids in love fighting cancer — Fox’s The Fault in Our Stars — has grossed $127.9M. And, How to Train Your Dragon 2 which has grossed $225.5M already, has yet to open in China. Well done.
Posted on: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 21:54:21 +0000