Decided to research Russias natural gas pipelines. 2 hours and a cup of coffee later, I have 5 pages of notes. My conclusion? Between the influence of Iran and Russia, they have control of a new iron curtain. A combination of military intimidation and control of the flow of natural gas, Russia is poised to force the acquiescence of Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Armenia. With influence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US is late to the show in central Asia, a game dominated by Iranian, Russian, and Chinese influence. If their grip tightens and Russias planned pipleline (agreed upon in recent talks) to China is opened, Russia can control the flow of natural gas to Europe, and with China as a competing customer, will be able to afford to cut off natural gas flow to the west, putting him in a position to tank the European economy, giving Putin a new degree of leverage and economic influence. Georgia has resisted Russia to this point, still trading natural gas through pipelines that connect to the black sea, but if Russian expansionism in Ukraine goes unchecked by the west, Georgia may find that it stands alone against the Russian juggernaut and may acquiesce to Russian control over said pipeline (having already been smashed by Russian armies in the 2008 annexation of Georgian territories under the Pretext of Russian humanitarian concerns). Alternatives to Georgia as a supplier of Central European natural gas, Pakistan and Turkey, are both unfavorable due to turbulence in both countries as well as desire of both countries to gain greater profit as sellers rather than mere transporters of the gas. As Ukraine pulls away from Russian influence and its planned participation in Russias 2015 Eurasian Union, Viktor Yanukovych fled the country to Russia after emptying 10 billion dollars (the entirety) from the Ukrainian treasury, and 1 month after the robbing of the Ukrainian treasury, Russia announced that the price of gas to Ukraine would rise 80%. In the economic developments in Ukraine to follow, we will see the consequences of disloyalty to the rising natural-gas-powered Russian federation. Zac Bears, Harrison Searles, Devin Moreland, Ryan David, Hannah Kass Thoughts?
Posted on: Sat, 19 Apr 2014 00:34:09 +0000
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