ESPN Insider: Team Canada predictions Some things are notable primarily for the sheer audacity of the excess that defines them. A-Rods ego. Virtually anything associated with a Kardashian. Add to this list the roster alternatives for the Hockey Canada management team as it heads into the deadline month of December. The issue here isnt so much who will be on the final Canadian Olympic team roster, but rather who wont be on the team that will likely compete for gold in Sochi. Heres my take on some of the roster questions that will be debated up north from every conceivable angle. Forwards Roster locks • Ryan Getzlaf, C, Anaheim Ducks • Corey Perry, W, Anaheim Ducks • Jonathan Toews, C, Chicago Blackhawks • John Tavares, C, New York Islanders • Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins • Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay Lightning With a ridiculous amount of offensive firepower, it is difficult to lock in too many players on Canadas forward group without further comparative analysis. That being said, my top nine spots on the Canadian attack would have these six players chiseled in stone. I include Stamkos on this list because the Canadian team can invoke an injury clause and replace him on the roster at some point closer to the start of the tournament, and my guess is that the management team is willing to wait until the last possible moment to rule him out. Leaders of the pack • Matt Duchene, C, Colorado Avalanche • Jamie Benn, W, Dallas Stars • Logan Couture, C, San Jose Sharks • Patrick Marleau, C, San Jose Sharks • Joe Thornton, C, San Jose Sharks • Martin St. Louis, W, Tampa Bay Lightning The remaining three spots in the top-nine forward group presents the Canadian decision group (Steve Yzerman, Doug Armstrong, Peter Chiarelli, Ken Holland and Kevin Lowe) with a problem most teams could only dream of. Since the top three center spots wearing the maple leaf will most likely belong to some combination of Crosby, Tavares, Toews and a healthy Stamkos, the roster gymnastics that the Canadian brain trust has to wrestle with is how many other top-six centers to include who will play the wing -- at the expense of legitimate wingers. The players in this list all have a strong case for inclusion in Sochi, either because of strong play through the first quarter of the season (Duchene, Benn, Couture) or past Olympic experience (Marleau, Thornton, St. Louis). On the bubble Patrice Bergeron AP Photo/Charles Krupa Bruins center Patrice Bergeron is among more than a dozen forwards on the Olympic fringe. • Patrice Bergeron, C, Boston Bruins • Milan Lucic, W, Boston Bruins • Eric Staal, C, Carolina Hurricanes • Jordan Staal, C, Carolina Hurricanes • Patrick Sharp, W, Chicago Blackhawks • Tyler Seguin, C, Dallas Stars • Jordan Eberle, W, Edmonton Oilers • Jeff Carter, W, Los Angeles Kings • Mike Richards, C, Los Angeles Kings • Rick Nash, W, New York Rangers • Claude Giroux, C, Philadelphia Flyers • James Neal, W, Pittsburgh Penguins • Chris Kunitz, W, Pittsburgh Penguins • Andrew Ladd, W, Winnipeg Jets • Bryan Little, C, Winnipeg Jets The challenge in putting together a team for a 12-day tournament like the Olympics when you have this many elite players to choose from is whether to construct an All-Star squad or balance the immense skill of the top half of the lineup with some two-way/physical/grit players in the bottom half. Two of the players behind this velvet roster rope (Giroux and Eric Staal) lost their laminated backstage passes due to subpar performances over the first 20 games of the season. The rest of this groups uncertain Olympic status is either due to injury (Nash, Carter, Neal) or falling victim to the numbers game. Behind the numbers Justin Williams, W, Los Angeles Kings The chances of Williams cracking the Team Canada roster are likely slim to none. However, if anyone at Hockey Canada is partial to analytics, then he might merit at least some consideration, as the Kings winger leads the NHL in Corsi (65.5 percent), Fenwick (63.8 percent) and Shots For (64.2 percent) percentages. Simply stated, good things happen when Williams is on the ice at even strength; the Kings are about 10 percent more likely to have a shot attempt than when he isnt on the ice, according to extraskater. Defense Roster locks • Duncan Keith, D, Chicago Blackhawks • Drew Doughty, D, Los Angeles Kings • P.K. Subban, D, Montreal Canadiens • Shea Weber, D, Nashville Predators • Alex Pietrangelo, D, St. Louis Blues To say the Canadian team is deep on defense is an understatement. A good defensive team makes it difficult to gain the defensive blue line. With Canada, it might be difficult to get past the red line. While there might be concerns about elements of Subbans style among some within the Canadian decision-making group, I feel that his dynamic game-changing ability at least locks him onto the roster. The decisions regarding his actual game usage are up to the coaching staff. Blue-chip stocks • Brent Seabrook, D, Chicago Blackhawks • Marc Staal, D, New York Rangers • Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh Penguins • Jay Bouwmeester, D, St. Louis Blues • Dan Boyle, D, San Jose Sharks • Marc-Edouard Vlasic, D, San Jose Sharks • Dion Phaneuf, D, Toronto Maple Leafs • Mike Green, D, Washington Capitals Realistically, three (four if you disagree on the security of Subbans spot) roster positions are up for grabs on Canadas back end. More important, about 12-16 minutes of available ice time are up for grabs in any given game for anyone outside of the locked-in group. The question regarding who to play in these spots is similar to the one Team Canada faces on the bottom end of its forward group: Do they add more good (but similar) players, or do they add players who bring different elements (size/defensive focus/penalty killing) from their current top five? Leftist revolution • Marc Methot, D, Ottawa Senators • Dan Hamhuis, D, Vancouver Canucks • Karl Alzner, D, Washington Capitals Most coaches, given the choice, will opt for defensive pairings that present symmetry in left- versus right-handed shots. The scarce variable in this equation is generally the right side, but the Canadian squad has the relatively rare abundance of right-handed-shooting defensemen (Doughty, Weber, Pietrangelo and Subban). If a left-handed, defensive-minded defenseman is a priority, then this group of players might come into play. Goaltender Roster lock Carey Price, G, Montreal Canadiens Carey Price Francois Lacasse/NHLI/Getty Images Carey Price, who sports a 2.05 GAA this season, is a lock in net for Team Canada. Price is among the league leaders in both minutes played (1,143) and save percentage (.935). Perhaps more important, the scrutiny that comes with manning the Canadian net in the Olympics will seem pretty similar to the constant pressure-cooker environment that is the Montreal Canadiens. In the mix • Corey Crawford, G, Chicago Blackhawks • Josh Harding, G, Minnesota Wild • Mike Smith, G, Phoenix Coyotes • Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Pittsburgh Penguins • Roberto Luongo, G, Vancouver Canucks • Braden Holtby, G, Washington Capitals Once a source of competitive advantage in international competition, the situation in goal for Canada is now one of comparative weakness. Only 10 NHL teams currently employ a bona fide starting goalie born north of the 49th parallel, and the performances of the goalies in this group have been as volatile as Facebook stock. The question that Team Canada management has to answer is whether to fill out its goaltending ranks with veteran Olympic experience (Fleury, Luongo) or go with a totally fresh slew of faces behind the mask. Behind the numbers James Reimer, G, Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto, which currently is in second place in the Atlantic division, sits last in the NHL in shots against at 36.2 per game. One of the main reasons for its early-season success is Reimer, who leads the NHL in save percentage (.947) for goaltenders who have started at least 10 games. Armchair management Were the Canadian management team to ask for some help in filling out its roster (and about 30 million people north of the border are willing to volunteer), I would go the following route: Up front, I would supplement the Team Canada attack with first-time Olympians Matt Duchene, Logan Couture, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Milan Lucic and Patrick Sharp. Admittedly, there are some very strong hockey résumés not mentioned here, but Duchene, Couture, Benn and Seguin have simply played too well this season to be left off the roster. Duchene has been fantastic in his first season under Patrick Roy. Couture is a big reason the Sharks are (again) one of the top teams in the West. Benn, who possesses a formidable blend of skill and power, has teamed up with Seguin to form an almost unstoppable offensive force. Sharp is widely regarded as a key catalyst in Chicagos high-powered offense, and has two Stanley Cups to his name. Lastly, Lucic brings a unique element of raw power that may come in handy as the tournament progresses. Rounding out the roster would be Team Canada veterans Bergeron and St. Louis. Bergeron, who leads the NHL in faceoff winning percentage, would bring tremendous two-way value to the effort in Sochi, while St. Louis would provide both veteran leadership and inspiration to his teammates. Lastly, in the event Stamkos is unable to heal in time for the start of the tournament, I would have Rick Nashs bags packed and ready to go. On the back end, I would stock the remaining three defensive positions with Jay Bouwmeester, Brent Seabrook and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. The smooth-skating Bouwmeester has found a career renaissance in St. Louis and will cover miles of Olympic-size ice. Seabrook is a Team Canada veteran and could be paired with Blackhawks teammate Keith to make life miserable for opposition forwards. The left-handed-shooting Vlasic logs the most short-handed ice time on a Sharks team that is tied for the third-fewest power-play goals against. In net, my first choice to join Price would be Mike Smith. With the strength of their D corps, teams will likely find it difficult to enter the Canadian zone and will be forced to dump it in. If that is what they end up doing, then Smith can merrily collect these pucks and fire 100-foot passes to his formidable Canadian forwards. My third goaltender spot (and final roster decision) would go to Josh Harding (provided his injury over the weekend is not severe). In addition to being among the NHL leaders in most categories during Nik Backstroms absence, Harding has a personal story that is both remarkable and inspirational. His reward: a trip to Sochi and 12 days of target practice from some of the best players in the world. Picking a fantasy Canadian Olympic team was a very difficult exercise, and the players I left off the list could probably win a medal in Sochi as a separate team. I dont envy (actually, I do a little bit) the men who have to make these decisions.
Posted on: Tue, 26 Nov 2013 03:25:35 +0000
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