FXUS62 KMLB 060724 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 324 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING E/NE UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AFTER A COOLER START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S...HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 80S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO NO RAIN CHANCES TO SPEAK OF WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY FROM PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTING EASTWARD AND APPROACHING FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST PAST MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AS THEY SHIFT WESTWARD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS TONIGHT. TUE-WED...PATTERN DOMINATED BY PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WL TRANSITION TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN GULF TO THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOSS OF CAA AND VEERING WINDS WL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. SOME VORT ENERGY TRANSITIONING EWD WITH UPR TROUGH AXIS OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC LATE TUE AND INTO WED MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN A FEW SPOTS...HOWEVER ANY MEASURED RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE DUE TO A PREVAILING RATHER DRY AIRMASS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOWS LITTLE CHG IN LARGE SCALE FEATURES AS UPR HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE GULF ELONGATES SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING ENOUGH OF A PLAYER TO LIMIT CHC OF PCPN. SOME INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS PAST MIDWEEK MAY HELP BRING SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE PCPN TO THE COAST IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME. A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS IS SHOWN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUBTLE LL MOISTURE INCREASES POSSIBLE. RAIN CHCS WL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE AND MAINLY AT THE COAST IN THIS ADVERTISED PATTERN. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS. APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO SCT-BKN RANGE ABOVE 15KFT INTO TONIGHT. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD WILL VEER WINDS MORE ONSHORE WITH E/NE WINDS BECOME E/SE INTO TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY... BECOMING 3 FEET OR LESS INTO TONIGHT. THROUGH MIDWEEK...EVOLUTION OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOWS SOME INCREASES PAST MIDWEEK WITH SEA HGHTS CONSEQUENTLY RISING WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE FETCH. SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE SHOWN COMMON OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH AROUND 3 FT NEARSHORE. HGHTS RISING TO AROUND 3-5 FT LATE IN THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE TODAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AREAS...MAINLY WEST OF I-4 CORRIDOR ACROSS LAKE COUNTY. HOWEVER HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 66 85 67 / 0 10 10 10 MCO 83 67 85 67 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 81 69 83 70 / 0 10 10 10 VRB 83 69 84 69 / 0 10 10 20 LEE 83 65 86 66 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 83 67 87 67 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 83 68 86 69 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 83 70 83 69 / 0 10 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WEITLICH LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 06 Oct 2014 07:24:34 +0000
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