FXUS62 KMLB 140830 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 430 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... TODAY-TONIGHT... A LARGE H100-H70 HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO THE MID ATLC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP ZONAL FLOW THRU THE H85-H30 LYR THAT WILL PUSH IT INTO THE W ATLC BY SUNSET. THERE...IT WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO THE E/NE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE S/SE BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE THE DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH OCEAN MOISTURE ACRS CENTRAL FL...THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H90-H70 LYR THAT WILL CAP VERTICAL MOTION BLO 5KFT. EVENING SOUNDINGS MEASURED PWAT VALUES BLO 0.5 WHILE IR SAT PICS REVEAL ONLY A MARINE STRATOCU DECK OVER THE W ATLC. THESE WILL PANCAKE OUT ALONG THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AS THE DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE WEST. AFT A COOL START TO THE DAY...THE ERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE L/M70S (ARND 5F BLO AVG). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE L/M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF AVG. SAT/SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FARTHER SEAWARD WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE A SOUTHEAST/SOUTH RETURN WIND FLOW WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE ON SAT...UPPER 70S COAST/LOWER 80S INTERR WITH NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES. SUN/SUN NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT WILL BE A WARM AND WINDY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY RAINFREE AND HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF SO WE WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH TO 50 PERCENT AS MODELS BRING DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MON-THU...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60 PERCENT FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA NORTH FOR MON AND THIS MAY SHIFT INTO THE EVE AS THERE REMAINS NOTICEABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS THERE LOOKS TO BE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT ENDING THE THREAT FOR THUNDER BUT WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TUE MORNING. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST FROM TUE AFTN ONWARD. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN. WINDS VEER ONSHORE BY TUE AND MAX TEMPS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S BY MID WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 50S TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION... THRU 15/00Z...VFR ALL SITES. HI PRES BUILDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC WILL FORCE A SFC WNDSHFT FROM N/NE TO E/NE AOB 12KTS BTWN 14/12Z-14/15Z...THEN TO SE AOB 8KTS BY 15/00Z. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...DATA BUOYS/C-MAN STATIONS CONTINUE TO MEASURE 15-20KT NRLY WINDS WITH SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND ESTIMATED 4-6FT OFFSHORE. HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO THE MID ATLC WILL PUSH INTO THE W ATLC TODAY AND ANCHOR ITSELF ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LCL PGRAD WILL SLACKEN WITH SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS DIMINISHING FROM THE CURRENT MODERATE TO FRESH NRLY BREEZE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 3-5FT BY EARLY AFTN...THEN TO 2-4FT OVERNIGHT. WHILE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE SCA...THEY ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT SCA TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FARTHER SEAWARD AND A RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND BACK TO FLORIDA. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS SAT SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHICH WILL MAKE IT THE BETTER BOATING DAY. ON SUNDAY BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MON-TUE...THE PREFERRED SCENARIO IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE MON WITH FLOW VEERING TO WEST NORTHWEST ON TUE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE SE US COAST...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY...SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM N/NE TO E/NE AFT SUNRISE AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC/SERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE DRY AIRMASS TO MODIFY...THOUGH MIN RH VALUES MAY FALL BLO 35PCT ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR FOR 3-5HRS. WEEKEND...ON SAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST (10 KNOTS OR LESS) WITH MIN RH VALUES STILL DROPPING NEAR 35 PERCENT OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP UPWARDS SUNDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40 PERCENT BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND PRODUCE EXCELLENT DISPERSION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 54 77 59 / 0 10 0 10 MCO 76 53 81 58 / 0 10 0 10 MLB 72 57 78 64 / 0 10 0 10 VRB 73 56 78 62 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 75 53 79 58 / 0 10 0 10 SFB 75 53 80 59 / 0 10 0 10 ORL 75 54 80 60 / 0 10 0 10 FPR 72 55 78 61 / 0 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRAGAW LONG TERM....KELLY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 08:30:38 +0000
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