FXUS64 KHUN 090006 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 606 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z TAFS && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/ UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS ENJOYING A NICE AND WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S. THOSE CLEAR SKIES ARE PROVIDED BY A NICE POCKET OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY A WEAK SFC RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT FURTHER TO OUR NW...A COLD FRONT LIES DRAPED FROM OHIO ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI TOWARD A WEAK SFC LOW CENTERED IN NE TEXAS. INCREASING LOW/MID LVL CLOUDS CAN GENERALLY BE SEEN ALONG AND TO THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS DRIFT CLOSER TO THE CWA IN THE NEARLY ZONAL/SW MID/UPPER LVL FLOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ONLY HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO STALL THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK AND ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE CWA...THEY HINT THAT POP CHCS WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE MOIST BUT EXPECT THAT THEY ARE OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION DEWPOINTS (MOST OUTPUT IS INDICATING SFC TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S WHILE WE ARE LARGELY SITTING IN THE UPPER 30S). HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH SILENT POPS OVERNIGHT INSTEAD OF EVEN A SLT CHC. ENOUGH MID LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TO IMPACT TEMPS TOMORROW...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH AS SW FLOW RETURNS. A CUTOFF MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MAY PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE IN THE MAIN FLOW TO PRODUCE A GOOD ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTER A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...A SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TO OUR SE AND WARM TEMPS AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND (ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING). CCC && .AVIATION... FOR 00Z TAFS...SFC OBS INDICATE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW...WITH VFR CONDS FEATURING SCT HIGH- BASED CU/AC AND BKN CI EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU TIME OF FROPA. LGT WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT TO NNW AND INCREASE AS FRONT PASSES MSL ARND 09/04Z AND HSV ARND 05Z. ALTHOUGH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE SW AND NE OF THE LOCAL REGION...A DECK OF STRATUS BASED ARND 3500 FT WILL BUILD INTO REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT -- WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY IN LIGHT BR PSBL BTWN 10-14Z. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 14Z...WITH SCT CU/AC...BKN CI...AND A NW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS CONTINUING THRU END OF TAF PERIOD. 70/DD && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
Posted on: Sun, 09 Mar 2014 00:07:39 +0000
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