Good Evening 6-25-13… Soybeans put together a higher session showing good follow through strength from Monday’s session high close after bouncing off key support areas. Fundamentally, it’s all about a tight spot cash situation going into the July delivery period with first notice day Friday. I think it also has something to do with the crop getting smaller as the 44 bushel per acre yield USDA looks rich given a third of the crop is rated fair to poor and the late planting dates for the full season crop. Also, I think soybeans will take the biggest acreage hit of the preventive planting acres. Corn close mixed as the bull spreaders took charge going into the July delivery period. Technically, soybeans have the best looking chart picture of the bunch for one to argue the case for a July rally. The rounded top formation trace out on the July futures contract looks to be giving way with Monday’s outside reversal-up and Tuesday’s strong follow through strength having put the market on track to punch out the middle June high. The underlying moving average structure is on solid footing for the long term tend trader to be a buyer with the 50-day above the 100-day on the July and August contracts and the 100-day on the verge of a move above the 200-day on the July contract. Still no sign the corrective decline off last week high point is complete in corn. So far, the 50-day moving average level is holding the break. With that said, it would not take much to turn things around if an event would come along to change the overall bearish perception of the market. That pretty lies with Friday’s grain stocks and acreage report to do the trick with a set of bullish numbers. Given the volatility of recent reports one should be braced for about anything. Not sure what to expect. Most seem to be thinking the stocks number will be supportive and acreage number will be negative side. H. Dan Zwicker Dan.Zwicker@cgb
Posted on: Tue, 25 Jun 2013 20:09:39 +0000