Good evening, I hope everyone got home safely. I want to clear up a couple of things: A: I do NOT buy the HRRR/SREF/GFS lower snow totals. I believe that there is a tremendous disconnect between model output and actual observations, especially with regard to the 500 MB pattern. The GFS whiffed on the tilt of the trough. There is a clear push to the west with this system. The surface low is actually southwest of what is modeled-- which leads me to believe that the precipitation comes west too. The upper air pattern favors a western track. B: What are you seeing now? The storm is beginning the intensification process. It is fueled by the fresh injection of Arctic Air, the warm moisture of the Atlantic Ocean, and a piece of energy in the midwest. Our storm will begin the pivoting process. C: Mesoscale convective banding is already hitting parts of the forecast area. Some heavy bands of snow are already falling throughout the state, and especially Staten Island. D: Jefferson Township picked up 2 of snow today-- which was right in line with my idea of a coating to 3. E: The absolute worst of this storm is overnight and through tomorrow morning. Upward motion from the strengthening low will result in more bands of precipitation. F: I am in the middle of analyzing some water vapor, the 850 MB, and 500 MB. This storm is in the process of cutting itself off at the 500 MB, and right now it looks like its about 50 miles WEST. Im also starting to see a closed off 850 MB low. You should see expanded precipitation over the next couple of hours. Thus, I am NOT changing snow totals. This storm is truly fascinating to watch. Ill keep you all informed. Ill try to answer any questions. - MB
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 23:55:32 +0000