Here’s one way to look at the battle to control the Senate: Republicans currently control 45 seats. Three GOP-held seats are up for grabs (Georgia, Kansas and Kentucky), but three Democratic seats are highly-likely GOP takeovers (West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana). So entering the competitive races, Republicans have 45 seats. Below, I analyze the 10 most competitive Senate races. In two of the races — Louisiana and Georgia — the most likely outcome is a runoff. In the other eight races, I find Republicans the favorite in six races, which would be enough to give the GOP the Senate majority. But here’s the thing: Of those eight races, there are three that are essentially coin tosses: Iowa, North Carolina and Kansas. Republicans are leaning more heavily on these tossup races than are Democrats. That places the most likely outcome of Tuesday night between 51 and 52 GOP seats, with two races going to runoff. Alaska (Begich): Sen. Mark Begich consistently polls below 45 percent — well below 45 percent. His Republican challenger, Dan Sullivan, averages slightly above 45 percent. Given those same numbers, if Begich were the challenger, the call would be very tough. Since Begich is the incumbent, his low numbers are a dire sign. There is a much-talked-about Begich ground game. But overcoming a 43.6 percent RealClearPolitics average would take a huge ground game. Leaning Republican Takeover. Arkansas (Pryor): It took a unique confluence of events to give Sen. Mark Pryor two terms in the chamber. In 2002, he beat Tim Hutchinson, who had just left his wife for a staffer. In 2008, Republicans fell on their face and failed to field an opponent. Now the GOP has its act together, and Pryor is the most vulnerable incumbent in the Senate. He’s barely above 40 percent in most polls, while his challenger, Tom Cotton, hovers around 50 percent. Leaning Republican Takeover. Colorado (Udall): Mark Udall is the incumbent Senator, and he was a congressman. He’s very well known throughout the state. So it’s very problematic for him that he’s below 45 percent in all polls but one since the middle of October. Udall has attached some decent negatives to his opponent, conservative Rep. Cory Gardner, and so Gardner has exceeded 50 percent in only one poll in the last two weeks. The average of the polls however, is a modest Gardner lead. In nearly every poll, Gardner’s lead is within the margin of error, but for a challenger, that’s typically enough. Leaning Republican Takeover. Georgia (Open): Democrat Michelle Nunn is the best Democratic candidate in an open-seat race, and Republican David Perdue is one of the weakest Republican candidates in an open-seat race. The polls show a tie, with about 5 percent undecided. If you examine each pollster, you see Perdue holding still while Nunn slowly climbs. Nunn would be the slight favorite, except that in Georgia, a candidate needs a majority of all votes cast in order to win. Instead, a Perdue-Nunn runoff is likely. In such a runoff, Nunn — even if she finishes ahead Tuesday, as looks likely — will have a harder time. Without Obama on the ballot, it will be hard for Nunn to get enough of a black turnout for her to reach 50 percent plus one. Leaning runoff. Iowa (Open): Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst are essentially tied in the polls. The largest sample-size-poll in the past two weeks (Reuters/Ipsos) showed a 45 percent to 45 percent tie. Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and Marist polls show Ernst leading within the margin of error. This is a statistical tie, with a very slight tilt towards Ernst. The only reason to come down on the Republican side is that Gov. Terry Brandstad, at the top of the ticket, is poised to win by more than 20 points. Leaning Republican Takeover. Kansas (Roberts): Old Republicans never die, but they often lose reelection. Bill Roth, Slade Gorton, Arlen Specter and Richard Lugar all were rejected by voters in part because it was “time for a change.” Pat Roberts is the most obvious target for the “time for a change” raygun. Democrat/Independent Greg Orman is a top-tier challenger. He benefits from not technically being a Democrat and from Gov. Sam Brownback’s unpopularity. Roberts — who received a strong Tea Party challenge this summer — consistently polls below 45 percent, which is deadly for an incumbent. Orman has been ahead in three of the four latest polls, but Roberts led by 4 points in the poll with the largest sample size. This is the race with the most uncertainty. Orman doesn’t have a party machine behind him. Roberts, on the other hand, has a divided party behind him. Eleven to twenty percent of the electorate is undecided or going for a minor candidate, judging by the last three polls. Ordinarily, such an undecided electorate would tilt Republican in a state like Kansas, but Brownback applies serious drag to Roberts. Leaning Democratic Takeover. Kentucky (McConnell): If Democrats could substitute Alison Lundergan Grimes for their second-rate candidates in Iowa or Colorado, she would be on her way to a Senate seat. Smart, savvy and tireless, she’s running as good a race as she can. But Sen. Mitch McConnell has successfully painted her with the Obama brush, which is deadly in the Bluegrass State. Voters with no love for McConnell will vote for him as a vote against Obama. McConnell leads by more than five points in most polls. He’s below 50 percent in the two latest polls. But he’s looking strong enough to hang on. Leaning Republican Retention. Louisiana (Landrieu): Sen. Mary Landrieu is a survivor. She was supposed to lose in 2002, when Republicans took back the U.S. Senate. She survived the Bush Era when Republicans took over most of the South. And this much seems clear: She won’t get defeated on Election Day. Louisiana has an open primary system. Two serious Republican candidates are on the ballot with Landrieu, along with some minor candidates. The most likely result is Landrieu finishing first, with the top two Republican candidates approaching 50 percent. In all likelihood, Landrieu will end up in a runoff with Rep. Bill Cassidy. Cassidy would start off the favorite, but Landrieu is a fighter. Likely Runoff. New Hampshire (Shaheen): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads in almost every October poll. She’s just around 50 percent in most polls, and ahead by 5 points, 7 points and 8 points in three recent polls. All of these polls were before the final debate in which Shaheen, by most accounts, defeated her Republican carpetbagger opponent Scott Brown. Leaning Democratic Retention. North Carolina (Hagan): Only one poll since mid-October shows Sen. Kay Hagan with a lead outside the margin of error. On the other hand, challenger Thom Tillis hasn’t lead in any polls of likely voters this month. This promises to be one of the three closest races of Election Day. Employing the incumbent rule tips the scale to Tillis. Hagan’s RealClearPolitics average is 44.9 percent. An incumbent is allowed to be below 50 percent, but below 45 percent — on average — is hard to overcome. Look at the fundamentals on the ground in North Carolina, and you see a Republican state with a sizable black minority that turns out when Obama is on the ballot. Consider the states recent history this way: Hagan and Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue both won in 2008 in the Obama wave. Otherwise, in top-tier statewide elections, Republicans this millennium win in North Carolina. While Hagan leads in most polls, I would bet against her if given even odds. Leaning Republican Takeover. washingtonexaminer/republicans-will-have-50-to-52-seats-after-tuesday-night-with-two-seats-going-to-runoff/article/2555564
Posted on: Sat, 01 Nov 2014 00:58:56 +0000
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